The 2022 Summer Movie Box Office Preview

Since I’m seeing Top Gun: Maverick this week Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness next Monday and Avatar 2 tomorrow morning (I jest…), I better put my chips down in terms of the summer movie box office. The most important story of the season is, sadly, the lack of theatrical releases being offered up between May and August. Blames studio skittishness, an emphasis on streaming, Covid-related production delays or all of the above, but there’s barely enough “big” releases (with nothing tentpole-worthy in August) to even scrounge up a “ten biggest earners of summer” post. That said, we are getting some genuine biggies, so allow me to put my money where my mouth is. For reference, this will be listed by domestic box office, although overseas potential will be discussed where applicable. Let’s see how foolish I look come Labor Day…

Jurassic World: Dominion (Universal/June 10/$400 million)

Universal’s dinosaur park franchise may not get as much digital ink or online anticipation as the Marvel or DC biggies, but the fans show up, and general audiences show up. Jurassic World earned more than The Avengers ($652 million domestic and $1.671 billion worldwide). Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom grossed $417 million domestic and $1.308 billion worldwide, more than Wonder Woman in North America and more than any solo non-Spider-Man MCU flick save for Black Panther worldwide. This is one of those franchises that the Internet claims everyone hates, and yet general audiences show up and tend to tilt their thumbs upward. Throw in a Fast & Furious/X-Men: Days of Future Past-style “everyone into the pool” ensemble (pairing Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard with Sam Neill, Laura Dern and Jeff Goldblum), a “series finale” hook and general goodwill toward what has become one of the only big-deal “not a literal or metaphorical superhero” franchise, and Jurassic World: Dominion is the easy bet to own the summer at the global box office. I’m betting it ends up tops in domestic grosses too.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Walt Disney/May 6/$350 million)

The Marvel summer kick-off flicks (Thor, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Avengers: Infinity War) do better than the mid-summer offerings (Captain America, Ant-Man, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp), so Sam Raimi’s Doctor Strange sequel has the advantage over Taika Waititi’s Thor: Love & Thunder. While the first Doctor Strange was well-liked and successful ($232 million domestic/$677 million in 2016), it wasn’t among the more beloved entries, and I’m not sure having Benedict Cumberbatch’s Sorcerer Supreme showing up in several MCU movies since then makes his solo sequel more or less anticipated. That said, the film is coming off Spider-Man: No Way Home, with a promise of multiverse-specific cameos (including at least, presumably, Patrick Stewart’s Charles Xavier) and a designation as the first “mythology episode” for Marvel since Avengers: Endgame. In terms of May MCU sequels, the question is whether it plays like (sans around $100 million in China) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($389 million/$869 million) or Captain America: Civil War ($408 million/$1.155 billion).

Thor: Love & Thunder (Walt Disney/July 8/$325 million)

While Taika Waititi’s Thor 4 is something else almost distinctly old-fashioned. It is a much-anticipated sequel that is going to be quite successful because lots of people saw and liked the last one and want to see more. Even if you don’t care about the post-Endgame MCU, if you liked Thor: Ragnarok ($315 million/$854 million), this is more of the same. You get Hemsworth co-starring with Tessa Thompson and Waititi himself yet again, with “added value” in the form of the Guardians of the Galaxy cast members (at least Chris Pratt in terms of speaking roles) plus Russell Crowe as Zeus, Christian Bale as the bad guy and Natalie Portman reprising as Jane Foster now designated as “the Mighty Thor.” Just as plenty of folks otherwise not-so-obsessed with Marvel relished James Gunn’s Guardians movies and/or Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther, so too has Waititi’s Thor sequel built up a fandom disassociated with the broader MCU. No matter what happens, all parties returned to Thor because they wanted to, not because of broader cinematic universe responsibilities.

Nope (Universal/July 22/$175 million)

Here’s where I make a long-shot prediction, partially because it’s fun. Look, I’m sure there are other movies that will earn more globally this summer, but Nope has the advantage of being anticipated entirely on in-the-moment fandom. It’s not a nostalgia sequel, a potentially past-its-prime kids’ franchise or a desperate IP exploitation. It’s a marquee director (Jordan Peele) wrangling a well-liked ensemble (Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer, Steven Yeun, etc.) for a mysterious high-concept horror original whose trailer plays like gangbusters on an IMAX screen. Get Out earned $175 million domestic in 2017 while Us nabbed the second-biggest live-action original debut (behind Avatar) with a $71 million opening on the way to a $175 million domestic cume. Simply put, if this does likewise, I’m not so sure that the rest of the summer slate is going to match such a domestic figure. It’s the one big movie opening this summer that will be selling itself as simply “come see this movie because it’s going to rock your world.” Either way, it’s going to be the year’s biggest live-action original by a healthy margin.

Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal/July 1/$165 million)

Minions: The Rise of Gru is both a sequel to Minions ($336 million/$1.1 billion) and a prequel to Despicable Me 3 ($272 million/$1 billion), so it’s probably going to be among the four biggest global grossers of the summer no matter how well it plays in North America. It was supposed to open two years ago, and it’s been delayed so long due to Covid that its trailer played in front of both Sonic the Hedgehog and Sonic the Hedgehog 2. Presuming it opens this July 4 weekend, it’ll be the last “delayed by Covid” 2020 release to open theatrically, just over a month after Fox’s Bob’s Burgers and Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick. Will such a delay and theoretical cultural rusting for Illumination’s prized IP result in Minions 2 earning a domestic cume closer to The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Sing 2 (both over $160 million) than The Grinch and Despicable Me 3 (both around $270 million)? Maybe, but we’re dealing with an $80 million animated film, so there are few “bad” scenarios.

Lightyear (Walt Disney/June 17/$155 million)

Pixar “originals” that don’t set the world on fire (Brave, Coco, Wall-E, Ratatouille, etc.) earn between $205 million and $235 million domestic, sans inflation. This will be the first Pixar flick to get a true global theatrical release since Onward (which was sent to Disney+ and PVOD earlier than intended due to Covid) and the first unmolested Pixar toon since Toy Story 4 three years ago. We don’t yet know if the two years’ worth of “for free on Disney+” releases for Soul, Luca and Turning Red have lessened Pixar’s shine as a theatrical brand. That this is a somewhat obtuse IP play (it’s, uh, the movie that Andy watched as a kid that made him a fan of Buzz Lightyear) may make it less of an easy sell. However, there’s still time for Disney to say “F*** it, stop overthinking this, it’s just a big-budget outer-space adventure from Pixar.” And yes, it stinks that two years of inclusive and original Pixar toons were used as streaming wars loss leaders only to Lightyear to get the global theatrical treatment, but I digress.

Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount/May 27/$125 million)

This sequel was shot way back in summer 2018, with the initial summer 2019 release date being pushed back to summer 2020 until Covid screwed everything up. Three years ago, I was pretty pessimistic about this one. After all, it’s a 35-years-later sequel with zero kid appeal starring a huge movie star (Tom Cruise) whose non-Mission: Impossible movies still tend to have an under-$400 million worldwide ceiling. Paramount seems high on it, and I liked Cruise’s American Made (a pessimistic look at the Iran/Contra scandal) and director Joseph Kosinski’s Only the Brave is so damn good that I’ve entirely forgiven him for Tron: Legacy. Moreover, while I’m still not overly optimistic, Paramount seems to be (they are showing the movie at CinemaCon on Thursday) and they’ve been on a stunning streak in 2022 with Scream, Jackass Forever, The Lost City and Sonic the Hedgehog 2. Still, Cruise is still “the man,” but his non-Ethan Hunt films have topped out at over/under $100 million for the last 15 years. Is Maverick enough of a “marquee character” to move the needle?

The Rest?

I will laugh hard if two years of “older audiences don’t go to the movies” ends with Downton Abbey: A New Era (May 27) earning over/under $100 million domestic on par with its 2019 predecessor. Warner Bros. moved Black Adam to October 21, leaving them with just DC League of Super-Pets (July 29) and Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis (co-starring Tom Hanks and Austin Butler) due on June 24. It’ll debut at Cannes next month while Universal’s The Black Phone (June 24 as well) will screen at CinemaCon tonight. Sony is hopeful that Where the Crawdads Sing will pull in fans of the novel and old-school movies, while Paramount will try to continue their winning streak with the animated Blazing Saddles remake Paws of Fury, both opening on July 15. With Kevin Hart and Woody Harrelson’s The Man From Toronto sent to Netflix, there’s nothing remotely “big” in August, which is why Sony hopes Bullet Train can act like Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and at least earn grosses on par with Sandra Bullock’s The Lost City. And that’s it for a surprisingly light summer movie slate…