NBA Commissioner Adam Silver had a successful 2022-23 including a new seven-year Collective … [+]
With the first round of the NBA playoffs underway, here is a recap of the 2022-23 regular season and a look ahead.
Overview: The average audience for the regular season games in 2022-23 held up compared to the previous season. Attendance for NBA games reached an all-time high. The NBA is expected to start negotiating a new media rights agreement which could result in a threefold. Expansion will probably be put on hold until after a new media rights agreement is finalized. The NBA and Players Association struck a new seven-year Collective Bargaining Agreement which ensures no lockout until 2029. The new CBA also provides for an in-season tournament.
Ratings: For the 2022-23 NBA regular season, the average audience across TNT, ESPN and ABC averaged 1.59 million viewers. This was a slight downturn from the previous season of 1.61 million. With a majority of regular season games on TNT and ESPN, cord cutting and continued audience erosion of linear TV have had an impact on viewing. According to TVTech, more than 10 million U.S. households dropped their cable subscription in the past two calendar years. Adam Silver noted that when he became NBA Commissioner in 2014, there were 112 million people watching primetime programming on traditional television; it has since fallen to about 62 million.
According to Sports Media Watch the average viewership over the past four seasons (including two shortened COVID seasons) rank among the lowest over the past three decades.
Least Watched Regular Season NBA Games
(Average audience in millions)
2020-21 1.36
2006-07 1.52
2019-20 1.55
2002-03 1.58
2022-23 1.59
Note: Past 30 seasons
Source Sports Media Watch via Nielsen
Looking at local market ratings, the defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors were the top-rated team in 2022-23. The Warriors averaged a 5.1 household rating in the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose TV market. It marked the seventh time in the past eight seasons the Warriors were the top-rated local team. The Warriors games air on the Comcast
CMCSA
Attendance: For the 2022-23 season the NBA set an attendance record at 22,234, 502, surpassing the previous high of 22,124,559 set in 2017-18. NBA games had 791 sellouts, another record, surpassing 760 sellouts from the 2018-19 season. With a record 97% of seats filled, the average attendance for NBA games exceeded 18,000 for the first time. The attendance for three NBA teams averaged over 20,000; Chicago Bulls (20,527), Philadelphia 76ers (20,469) and Dallas Mavericks (20,177).
Media Rights Negotiations: The current media rights agreement the NBA has with Disney via ESPN/ABC and Turner Sports via TNT now owned by Warner Bros Discovery expires at the end of the 2024-25 season. Disney and WBD have an exclusive negotiating window to renew which expires in April 2024 unless they opt out.
ESPN/ABC and TNT have been televising NBA games for over twenty years. Under the current nine-year agreement, signed in 2014 and kicked in with the 2016-17 season, the two companies have paid about $2.6 billion each season, a sizable increase from the previous agreement of $966 million per annum.
For the upcoming negotiations it’s been reported the NBA could be seeking a $75 billion media rights package. Among the media companies reportedly interested include NBCU which is seeking a package of playoff games on NBC and potentially exclusive streaming rights via Peacock. Previously, NBC had televised NBA games from 1990 to 2002. During NBC’s tenure, the Michael Jordan-led Chicago Bulls won six titles resulting in record high viewing for the regular season and postseason.
Over the past thirty years, the highest rated regular season was the lockout year of 1998-99, with a 50-game regular season schedule (instead of 82). That year the average audience on NBC was 3.10 million viewers. Another highwater audience mark was in 1995-96 season with an average audience 2.99 million. In that season the Chicago Bulls won a record 72 games (since broken). NBCU is expected to make an aggressive offer.
With linear TV viewing in decline, CNBC reports the NBA could negotiate an exclusive streaming deal with either Apple
AAPL
AMZN
Disney CEO Bob Iger has described the NBA as, “a product that we’ve enjoyed having and hope to continue to enjoy having.” On the other hand, David Zaslav, the CEO of WBD said last November, “We don’t have to have the NBA” citing coverage of the NHL, MLB and Men’s “March Madness” appeals to subscribers. Both Disney and WBD are facing financial debt and making cost-cutting decisions.
While the ratings for the NBA are lower than the NFL there are far more games (260 nights a year) with a desirable younger and more diverse audience.
Expansion: An ongoing topic with Adam Silver has been expansion. Since the 2004-05 season when the Charlotte Bobcats (now Hornets) were added there have been 30 NBA franchises. By comparison, the NHL and NFL have 32 franchises and MLB also has 30. In the event the NBA expands to 32 franchises, the two potential locations often mentioned are Seattle and Las Vegas, both have strong cases.
The Seattle Supersonics were a successful NBA franchise for thirty seasons, even winning the NBA championship in 1979. Under new ownership the Supersonics moved to Oklahoma City in 2008. It marks the last time an NBA franchise moved to a different TV market. Seattle ranks 12th among U.S. TV markets, the largest without an NBA franchise. The NHL expanded to Seattle with the Kraken at the start of the 2021-22 season. Seattle is also home to several other teams, including the WNBA’s Storm which has won four titles, most recently in 2020. Other professional franchises are the Mariners (MLB), Seahawks (NFL) and Sounders (MLS).
Although Las Vegas ranks at #40 among local U.S TV markets, it is among the fastest growing metros and a popular destination for business travelers and vacationers. Las Vegas recently has become home to several professional teams. The Vegas Golden Knights joined the NHL as an expansion team in 2017. In 2018 the WNBA’s San Antonio Stars became the Las Vegas Aces. In 2020 the NFL’s Oakland Raiders moved to Las Vegas. There also has been speculation MLB’s Oakland A’s could move to Las Vegas in the near future.
In the past, NBA commissioner Adam Silver has said expansion has not been a topic of discussion. The commissioner has been prioritizing the upcoming media rights negotiations and since completed collective bargaining agreement. Silver did say expansion could come up in a few years. The entry fee for an NBA expansion team could cost between an estimated $4 billion to $5 billion
Collective Bargaining Agreement: In early April the NBA and the NBA Players Association reached a new seven-year collective bargaining agreement, ensuring a lockout will not happen until at least 2029. When ratifies the news CBA will take effect on July 1, 2023. The new agreement addressed such topics as the salary cap and luxury tax.
Among the takeaways include limiting the ability of high spending teams such as Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors to spend more on acquiring new players than lower spending clubs. Retaining current roster players will not be impacted.
Also, to qualify for such postseason awards as MVP or All-NBA, players are required to participate in 65 (of the 82) regular season games (but there are qualifiers). In the future all-NBA teams will be “position less”. Since the 1955-56 season all-NBA teams have consisted of two guards, two forwards and a center.
There are several other tweaks made. A more detailed look at the impact of the new CBA agreement can be found here.
In-season Tournament; As part of the CBA, an in-season tournament which Adam Silver has been championing for a few years could happen as early as next season. All the details are still being worked on, but there is an outline in place.
The thirty clubs will be divided into six “pools” consisting of five teams. The teams in each pool will be from the same conference but not necessarily the same division. Early in the season (into November) there will be designated games in which teams will play a game with each of the other four teams in their pool. These games will also count in regular season standings.
The winner of each pool as well as two wild card teams will advance. The eight-team tournament will be played in a knock-out round sometime in December. The semifinals and finals will be played in a neutral site (potentially Las Vegas). The two finalists will be playing 83 regular season games instead of 82. For the tournament the players will be wearing different uniforms. Each player on the winning team would each get $500,000.
Adam Silver said, “Just as the Play-In (Tournament) has had significant value, I think this Cup tournament will as well.” Starting in 2020 the WBNA has had an in-season tournament called The Commissioners Cup. Also, mid-season tournaments are prevalent in European soccer leagues. Silver also points out that for years many college basketball teams participate in Holiday elimination tournament each December. Whether players and teams will be interested in the tournament remains to be seen.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2023/04/19/the-2022-23-nba-season-in-review-and-a-look-ahead/