All eyes turn to Tesla (TSLA) Wednesday with the global EV giant holding its investor day, with the event set to kick off at market close. CEO Elon Musk plans to reveal his “Master Plan 3” with analysts predicting announcements including a new Tesla EV platform, confirmation of a planned Mexico factory and potential Tesla Model 3 upgrades.
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The event, at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, factory, will begin with keynote presentations before turning to a Q&A segment with analysts expecting a big announcement on a new cheaper EV platform, updates on the Cybertruck as well as other news.
Tesla may also confirm a long-rumored “Project Highland” Model 3 upgrade. Reuters reported Wednesday an upgraded Model 3, with an emphasis on lower production costs, will go into production in September at the company’s Shanghai facility. Tesla is also updating the Model Y with interior and exterior changes with a 2024 production target, according to Reuters.
“The thing to look for this year is the Gen 3 platform, which is key to growth as it will allow lower-cost EVs which should boost volume as demand stalls and competition ramps up,” Third Bridge analyst Orwa Mohamad wrote late Tuesday.
Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador also announced Tuesday Tesla plans to build a manufacturing plant in Monterrey. Additional details will be released Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Tesla has repeatedly teased an EV that would sit around the $25,000 price point. CFO Zachary Kirkhorn, during the Q4 earnings call, said the “next-generation vehicle platform” was a priority. This could mean the cheaper, elusive, Tesla Model 2 could be floated on March 1.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares rose dropped 2.4% to 200.79 during Wednesday’s market trade. Tesla stock fell 0.9% to 205.71 on Tuesday, after jumping 5.5% Monday. Shares arguably have a cup-with-handle pattern going back to early November (or a too-low handle in a base starting in September). That would suggest a 217.75 buy point.
However, Tesla stock could face possible resistance at its 200-day moving average, currently just above 221.
Tesla stock has doubled from its bear-market low 0f 101.81 on Jan. 6. Much of that reflects Tesla investor day buzz. This follows a historical pattern of TSLA shares running up ahead of similar events. In 2016, Tesla stock went on a monthlong 22% run ahead of Musk’s second “Master Plan” announcement on July 20, 2016.
“The biggest risk for Tesla is freshening up their product lineup and getting less reliance on the Model 3 and Model Y for growth. The rumored $25K car would give Tesla a huge boost as more competition comes through the economy segment, but cost, execution and timeline are big question marks,” Mohamad added Tuesday.
Tesla Investor Day And Master Plan Number 3
Tesla’s first Master Plan, revealed in August 2006, presented the company’s goal to build a wide range of EVs. Ten years later, Musk revealed his second “Master Plan.” That focused on self-driving capability and battery energy storage systems.
Musk says his “Master Plan 3” is about a “path to a fully sustainable energy future for Earth.”
However, the billionaire CEO has been mostly mum on details. Musk on Wednesday said March 1 will be an event for investors “in Earth.” His comments came during the unveiling of plans for a new Tesla Engineering HQ in Palo Alto.
Musk added March 1 will be about “explaining how we get to a fully sustainable energy future and that people should have optimism and hope for the future.”
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Artificial intelligence may also be on the docket with Musk tweeting Tuesday he will be working on an “anti-woke” AI chatbot. Tesla may discuss its plans to expand the Nevada Gigafactory to make the Semi Truck and 4680 battery cells.
The EV giant likely will reveal HW4.0, the latest hardware for driver assistance, including better chips, more cameras and the return of radar. Musk said that all Tesla EVs were “hardware ready” for full self-driving as of 2016.
Tesla is also believed to discuss future factory expansions along with growth in the solar and energy storage businesses. Wall Street also forecasts announcements regarding actions to secure raw materials — including lithium.
Controlling Lithium Supply
Another potential initiative is a possible bid for Sigma Lithium (SGML), according to Bloomberg. Sigma Lithium has no sales, but is poised to start commercial production at its Brazil site in April. SGML shares soared 16% on the news Tuesday.
Tesla has already made progress on building a lithium processing facility in Texas, which will be the first of its kind in the U.S. Tesla has confirmed plans to invest $365 million in the lithium plant. The company has said commercial production could get underway by the end of 2024.
TSLA stock rank fourth in IBD’s Auto Manufacturers industry group. Tesla stock has a 73 Composite Rating out of 99. The stock also has a 27 Relative Strength Rating. The EPS Rating is 99.
Please follow Kit Norton on Twitter @KitNorton for more coverage.
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