Tariffs, Tax Cuts, And Tips: A Public Opinion Update

Polls these days seem to be generating more confusion than clarity. How Donald Trump will fare requires looking at longer-term polling trends.

Tariffs: When Trump dropped the hammer on tariffs last week, only 23% of voters had heard “a lot” about the deadline in a new Morning Consult poll. In Gallup’s latest from its long trend on attitudes toward trade, far more people said that trade is an opportunity for growth (81%) than a threat to the economy (14%). That’s an abstraction because as Gallup and other pollsters know, Americans believe many nations, especially China, haven’t played by the rules. Americans felt Japan wasn’t playing fairly in the 1970s, when sociologist Ezra Vogel’s best-seller proclaimed “Japan as #1: Lessons for America.”

What Americans care about now is not free trade per se, but what tariffs will do to their bottom line. The uncertainty surrounding them doesn’t help. In the new Economist/YouGov survey, 71%, including 55% of Republicans, said Donald Trump’s tariffs would cause prices to increase. A CBS/You Gov survey found that 71% felt the president was not focusing enough on lowering prices, while 61% in another question said that he was focusing too much on placing tariffs on goods from other countries. In the new Fox News poll, only 36% approved of the job he was doing on tariffs. Tariffs are a high-wire act for Trump, and he’s losing public support on the issue.

Tax Cuts: In the Atlantic, David Graham suggests that “If tax cuts are no longer political winners, that’s a major shift in American politics.” Tax cuts have not been public opinion winners for a very long time. Whether cuts are proposed by Republicans or Democrats, Americans just don’t believe they will see a tax cut. In five Gallup polls taken between June 1985 and September 1986, more people believed their taxes would go up rather than go down or stay the same under Reagan’s proposed tax overhaul. When George HW Bush said “Read my lips. No new taxes” in August 1998, people didn’t believe him— seven in ten told NBC News/Wall Street Journal interviewers he might accept new taxes. Only two in ten believed he would not. Barack Obama fared better in early polls about whether he could keep his promise that 95% of Americans would not see their taxes increase “by a dime” under his plans. Yet, by August 2009, when Fox News asked registered voters whether he was going to be able to keep the promise, 69% believed he could not.

Since 1977, a majority in Gallup’s polling have said that the taxes they pay in the following year will be higher. Americans may be thinking about their total federal, state, and local tax burden when they answer the question. Still, there is a long-standing skepticism of politicians’ promises in general, and tax cut promises seem especially untrustworthy.

NBC News and the Wall Street Journal started tracking attitudes about which party was better on the taxes in 1993, and they asked the question 35 times through 2018. Republicans had the edge in 13 questions asked between 1993 and 2004. As attitudes soured on the Bush presidency, Democrats took the lead in five questions asked between 2005 and 2008. Republicans regained a diminished edge through 2018. In a 2022 question asked by CNBC, Republicans still had a lead. Republicans’ advantage is on holding the line on taxes, not cutting them. Neither party has a clear advantage on dealing with taxes.The Big Beautiful Bill Act is such a hodgepodge that Trump may not suffer much from its overall unpopularity.

Tips: Americans supported the provision in Trump’s megabill to cut taxes on tips. Recent polls show no changes in Americans’ tipping plans as a result. Ipsos found that 58% –up barely from 55% two years ago–say they always or almost always tip workers for services. Forty-two percent responded that they make a choice to tip workers based on the quality of the service. Twenty percent in another question said they tipped more than they should, while 72% said they tip the right amount, and 7% said they tip less than they should. Bankrate also recently released a survey showing that 38% are annoyed by pre-entered tip screens at coffee shops, food trucks, etc.

In several new surveys, Republicans have the advantage as the party of change. That’s important, but last week’s GDP report, weak inflation numbers, and a disappointing jobs report suggest the President is facing significant headwinds.