Swiss Franc turns sharply bearish after SNB chief warns CHF gains risk inflation outlook

• The Swiss Franc has pivoted into one of its worst weekly performances in over a year.
• SNB concerns are mounting that CHF strength will hamper policy transfer.
• The CHF is still up 6% against the US Dollar through 2023.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) got knocked back on Thursday, accelerating recent losses and extending into one of its worst single-week performances after Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan warned that an appreciating CHF threatens the SNB’s ability to keep inflation above zero within the Swiss domestic economy.

The SNB has enjoyed the benefit of a stable economy with firmer growth figures than most of its Euro bloc peers, but Swiss growth and price measures have come under threat as the Swiss Franc appreciated through 2023 in one of its best yearly performances since the SNB suddenly removed its CHF price cap in 2015.

With the Swiss Franc rapidly appreciating into the tail end of 2023, the SNB is raising alarm that too much appreciation could harm the Swiss economy, with a rising Swiss Franc sending inflation rapidly lower. SNB policymakers are increasingly concerned that a rising CHF will bleed over into a disinflationary scenario, a significantly more difficult environment for the SNB to manage.

One of the benefits of an appreciating Swiss Franc is that the SNB is already considered broadly on-target for inflation with the national inflation rate at 1.7%, already below the SNB’s upper bound target of 2.0% while central banks around the world grappling with still-high inflation and carefully weigh policy rate cuts through the year.

After stellar gains through 2023, the Swiss Franc has sharply depreciated through 2024, declining 3.2% against the US Dollar (USD), 2.8% against the Pound Sterling (GBP), and falling 1.6% against the Euro (EUR).

USD/CHF & EUR/CHF Technical Outlook

The USD/CHF has gained 4.3% from December’s lows near 0.8333, the pair’s lowest bids since 2011 and is on pace to return to the 0.8800 handle barring too much of a hang-up on the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as intraday price action runs directly into the moving average’s technical zone.

The 200-day SMA is declining into 0.8850, and represents a key technical barrier between current bids and the 0.9000 handle the pair lost a hold of back in November.

The EUR/CHF has seen a limited recovery from last December’s all-time lows at 0.9254, climbing around 2% from the absolute bottom for the pair. 

The pair’s topside momentum is running into technical resistance at previous swing lows near 0.9450, and the 200-day SMA is descending into the 0.9600 handle to limit further appreciation. 

USD/CHF Daily Chart

EUR/CHF Daily Chart