Sustained move lower on the back of fundamentals, continued tight financial conditions – Danske Bank

EUR/CHF has moved sharply lower following the outbreak of war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. Economists at Danske Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Upside potential if the SNB decides to stop intervening

We expect FX intervention to continue to limit imported inflation and thus keep a cap on EUR/CHF in the near term.

We forecast a sustained move lower in EUR/CHF on the back of fundamentals and continued tight financial conditions. In light of the lower spot, we lower our entire forecast profile. We target the cross at 0.93 in 6-12M.

If the SNB decides to fully stop intervening, we see upside potential to EUR/CHF in the near term.