Surveying The Trade Landscape For Sixers Forward Tobias Harris

If the Philadelphia 76ers plan to go star-hunting during the 2022 NBA offseason, it will likely spell the end of Tobias Harris’ time in the City of Brotherly Love.

The Sixers already have $96.1 million committed to 11 players for next season, so they’ll be well over the projected $122 million salary cap if they re-sign James Harden this offseason. The two years and $76.9 million remaining on Harris’ contract will be the biggest impediment to them adding another star.

The Sixers could attempt to create enough cap space for a max contract by salary-dumping Harris, but no teams are projected to have enough room to absorb Harris without sending a smaller contract back. A sign-and-trade would be the more viable route to adding another star, but Harris would have to be part of the outgoing package.

If the Sixers send out more than $19.6 million in a trade, they’re allowed to receive only 125 percent of the outgoing salary, plus $100,000. If they go after Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine (who’s eligible for a max contract starting at $36.6 million) or Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal (whose max contract starts at $42.7 million), they’d have to send out at least $29.2 million and $34.1 million in salary, respectively.

Harris and Joel Embiid are the only two Sixers players under contract for more than $10 million next season. The Sixers aren’t trading Embiid after he finished as the MVP runner-up in back-to-back seasons, so barring a sign-and-trade involving Harden, they have to include Harris as the salary-matching contract in any blockbuster deal.

Even if the Sixers strike out on Operation: Add Yet Another Star, they still might consider pursuing a Harris trade this offseason. Harris played well over the final month of the season and the playoffs after getting off to a slow start alongside Harden, but he’s still overpaid relative to his production. They’d perhaps be better off breaking his contract into a few smaller deals to round out the depth on their roster.

Harris isn’t likely to have positive trade value—in other words, the Sixers will likely have to attach assets to get off his contract—but they could pursue a deal similar to what the Dallas Mavericks did with Kristaps Porzingis at the trade deadline. The Mavericks sent him to the Washington Wizards for two smaller contracts (Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans) that the Wizards were likewise hoping to shed.

If the Sixers go that route, these teams stand out as the most likely landing spots for Harris.

Oklahoma City Thunder

If the Sixers hope to clear enough cap space to sign a star in free agency, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be their best bet for a Harris dumping ground.

The Thunder currently have nearly $22 million in cap space available until June 30, but it will disappear July 1 when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s max extension officially kicks in. Since the Thunder are so far under the cap for now, they wouldn’t have to send a roughly equivalent amount of salary back to the Sixers in a Harris deal. They’d just have to finish no more than $100,000 over the cap following the trade.

The Thunder could create an additional $9.7 million in cap space by relinquishing all of their cap holds for former players such as Norris Cole, Nick Collison and Raymond Felton. If they did so, they could absorb Harris’ contract and would only need to send back veteran big man Derrick Favors ($9.7 million). The Sixers could also include Matisse Thybulle ($2.8 million) and/or the No. 23 overall pick this year as sweeteners.

The Sixers should only go this route if they’re certain that they’ll be able to spend their cap space wisely. Favors wouldn’t do much (if anything) for their playoff outlook next season, and they’d be left scrambling to replace both of their starting wings/forwards.

Sacramento Kings

The Sacramento Kings haven’t made the playoffs for the past 16 seasons, but they’re reportedly ready to move into win-now mode. They told candidates for their head coaching position this offseason that they were counting on a “Minnesota-esque surge in the standings in Year 1,” according to NBA scribe Marc Stein.

If the Kings can’t move the No. 4 overall pick for veteran help, perhaps they’d see Harris as an attainable solution instead?

Salary-matching will be the trickiest thing for the Kings. De’Aaron Fox is their only player who’s set to earn more than $20 million next season, so they’d have to combine two contracts to get up to Harris’ number. They likely wouldn’t include Domantas Sabonis ($18.5 million) after just acquiring him in a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline, so Harrison Barnes ($18.4 million) and Richaun Holmes ($11.2 million) are their top tradable contracts from a salary-matching perspective.

The Kings would have to send out at least $30.0 million to take back Harris’ $37.6 million after July 1, and the combination of Barnes and Holmes falls just short of that. However, the two teams could pull off a cap-legal trade before July 1, as Barnes ($20.3 million this season) and Holmes ($10.4 million) would cover Harris ($36 million). The Sixers could also throw in the No. 23 overall pick since it counts as $0 for salary-matching purposes until they sign that player to a contract, although the Kings would have to include another small contract if they wanted Thybulle in the deal, too.

Sacramento likely could get more value for the combination of Barnes and Holmes than Harris, Thybulle and/or the No. 23 pick. But with Barnes heading into the last year of his contract and Holmes now profiling as a backup center following the addition of Sabonis, a deal like this could help balance out the Kings’ new-look roster.

New York Knicks

After a surprise playoff appearance in 2020-21, the New York Knicks came crashing back to earth last season. On the bright side, they still have plenty of long-term financial flexibility.

Julius Randle and Evan Fournier are the only two New York players on guaranteed contracts that extend beyond this coming season. The Knicks will likely sign 2019 No. 3 overall pick RJ Barrett to an extension this offseason—or, if nothing else, re-sign him next summer as a restricted free agent—but they have 2023-24 team options on Derrick Rose ($15.6 million), Alec Burks ($10.5 million) and Nerlens Noel ($9.7 million).

The Knicks might prefer to maintain that flexibility heading into next offseason in the hope of luring a star free agent. But if they’re unwilling to endure another down year in the meantime, they might see Harris as a short-term way to upgrade their rotation.

Fournier ($18 million) and the expiring contract of Kemba Walker ($9.2 million) are the Knicks’ main salary-matching trade chips. From there, they could include any of Burks, Noel, Cam Reddish or Taj Gibson (if they guaranteed his $5.2 million salary for next season) to cobble together enough money to match for Harris.

If the Sixers are willing to include Thybulle and/or No. 23 as a sweetener to get off Harris, it might entice the Knicks to at least hear them out.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have an MVP-caliber star in Luka Doncic. They now need to find him a reliable sidekick.

Harris might not fit that bill long-term, but he could at least be an inexpensive stopgap solution.

Like the Knicks, the Mavericks have a number of mid-sized contracts that they could use for salary-matching purposes, from Tim Hardaway Jr. ($19.6 million) and Spencer Dinwiddie ($19.5 million) to Davis Bertans ($16.0 million) and Dwight Powell ($11.1 million). Dinwiddie is the only one of those four who averaged more than 15 minutes per game during this year’s Western Conference Finals.

Would their success over the latter half of the season embolden them to move on from Hardaway, who was sidelined by a foot injury since late January? They could potentially use him to get off the three years and $49 million remaining on Bertans’ contract while adding a clear upgrade in Harris.

It’s fair to wonder whether the Sixers should agree to such a framework. Bertans is a knockdown three-point shooter, but his defensive limitations make him a clear target in the playoffs. They’d have a glaring hole at forward after this deal, even if they’re able to keep Thybulle out of it.

Still, breaking Harris’ gigantic contract into two smaller ones could help the Sixers increase their flexibility for future trades down the road.

Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Pacers appeared to embrace a rebuild when they sent Sabonis, Justin Holiday, Jeremy Lamb and a 2023 second-round pick to the Sacramento Kings for Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Tristan Thompson at the February trade deadline. However, team governor Herb Simon said in December that he preferred a retool over a full Process-style rebuild, per Bob Kravitz of The Athletic.

“I don’t want to see (a rebuild),” Simon said. “If I don’t want to see it, the fans don’t want to see it. Why would we want to go through a rebuild when we can build on the go?”

If the Pacers aren’t willing to trade veterans such as Myles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon and Buddy Hield for young players and/or future draft picks, Harris could be a short-term alternative for them.

Pacers forward T.J. Warren, who has played only four games over the past two seasons combined, is set to be an unrestricted free agent this summer. Because of his recent injury history, teams may be reluctant to commit to him on a big-money, multiyear contract.

If no team is willing to even go as high as the $10.3 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception for Warren, the Sixers could pursue a sign-and-trade involving him instead. Would Harris and Thybulle and/or the No. 23 pick be enough for a package of Warren and Hield?

From the Pacers’ perspective, they’d effectively be swapping Hield for Harris and whatever additional compensation they could pry out of Philadelphia. The Sixers would be taking a big gamble on Warren’s health, but a package along these lines might be the best they could realistically hope for.

Chicago Bulls

While Zach LaVine once seemed like a lock to return to the Bulls on a five-year, $212 million max contract this summer, that’s no longer the case. The Bulls “are still considered likely to retain LaVine,” according to Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer, but rival front offices now view him as “gettable.”

“I plan to enjoy free agency,” LaVine told reporters in late April. “We’re going to have to experience A through Z without making any fast decisions. I think that’s something me and [agent Rich Paul] are going to go through and experience.”

If LaVine wanted to force his way to the Sixers, they would either have to salary-dump Harris or negotiate a sign-and-trade involving him. Teams rarely get equal value in sign-and-trades—the Sixers got Josh Richardson for Jimmy Butler, while the Golden State Warriors got D’Angelo Russell for Kevin Durant—but the Bulls could always play hardball and decide they’re better off with LaVine leaving outright rather than them taking back Harris.

Cooler heads would likely prevail if LaVine did decide he wanted to go to Philly. If the Bulls swapped him for Harris along with Thybulle and/or the No. 23 pick, they could trot out a starting lineup of Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams, Harris and Nikola Vucevic with Alex Caruso, Ayo Dosunmo and Thybulle coming off the bench. That wouldn’t be a shabby top eight.

This isn’t a realistic option unless LaVine has his heart set on joining the Sixers this summer, though.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.