Superman writer-director and DC Studios co-CEO James Gunn must have Bundaberg chilling on ice and waiting, as a sense of impending victory hovers in the air after tracking shows the superhero reboot eyeing a $130 million domestic debut. Early reviews are creating a must-see status, at 85% “Certified Fresh” via Rotten Tomatoes.
David Corenswet saves the day in “Superman.”
Is Superman Soaring?
Although much of DC fandom went through a week or so of handwringing about early box office estimates suggesting $90-120 million, but the truth is the numbers were already trending higher for Superman, as I said at the time:
My current numbers suggest it’ll probably open around $120-130 million domestic, with a lowest end of about $100 million and a high end swinging way out to $150 million. This is just domestic box office, remember, without international box office figured in.
In fairness, my precise guess at the time was $120 million, with a caveat that it was my “moderate” guess – my “bullish guess” would be $150 million. $130 million was the upward end of the range I expected, in other words, but that was before reviews or early ticket sales data.
For now, this is still where the raw numbers tell us it’s likely to finish the weekend. But it’s not out of the question Superman will land at the highest end of potential, and my gut is starting to speak its mind – it tells me to expect $145 million, plus or minus a few million, because besides those early reviews we’ve also seen social media reactions from audiences attending early screenings, and it’s all singing the same praises.
Come Thursday night, we’ll get a small glimpse ahead of Friday’s important Cinemascore and opening day figures. An A- or A grade from audiences and high recommend scores, plus an opening day ahead of estimates, will convince me the film is likely to overperform against the $130 million tracking and my earlier estimates, as my gut suggests already.
Dinos v Superman
Helping Superman’s box office potential this weekend is the fact that last weekend’s giant-sized $322 million victor Jurassic World: Rebirth might struggle to remain relevant after the combo of a weak B grade from viewers via Cinemascore and middling reviews that were likely among the worst of the franchise.
If indeed Jurassic World: Rebirth suffers a significant second weekend drop, summer audiences eager to get blockbuster bang for their box office buck will almost certainly turn to Superman to save the day.
But a secret additional factor may be at play that I think will further boost Superman’s box office powers.
While there is still plenty of audience affection for Marvel, and while the right projects will deliver billion dollar bucks for the MCU, I also think audiences no longer feel the same sense of magic they once got from experiencing Marvel movies. No offense to Marvel Studios, there’s a long list of factors involved and overall they’re still doing well obviously, but I feel we have to be honest that of course after the Infinity Saga it was going to be hard to maintain the same level of intensity and achievement.
But we need that. We need the magic. We need what these films, from the Biblical epics to the sword and sandal adventures to the modern superhero genre, keep alive for us: myths.
So I strongly suspect audiences are so eager for Superman not merely because the trailers look great and the studio is going all-in on the marketing campaign (Gunn himself is everywhere, including doing videos to sell toys and collectables tied to the film), but also because on a deeper level audiences are seeking that feeling they got from the first MCU saga. The feeling that everything is possible, the excitement of waiting to see what comes next and knowing it will surprise us and exceed our expectations.
Audiences are watching the trailers and interviews with the cast, reading the early reviews, and listening to the early social media reactions, and the sense is growing that maybe the DCU is about to deliver what the MCU used to (which isn’t as bad as it sounds for Marvel, as I think if audiences aren’t chasing that same high from Marvel then it gives Marvel room to gain more acceptance for what it does differently nowadays).
Superman’s $700 Million Question
That’s a helluva lot to carry, and like it or not Gunn signed up for it when he took over DC cinema and made a Superman movie. If he pulls it off, his DCU will launch with a spectacular result similar to Marvel’s 2008 home run with Iron Man. It’s true DC Studios is smartly doing what Marvel did in Phase One, which is treat all of the first few movies as one big shared investment to set up The Avengers.
Which takes pressure off Superman (and Gunn) to some extent, as the film doesn’t seem to have to do all of the lifting alone. It’s setting up a new DCU with a clean slate (sort of, but anyway), and convincing audiences to give DC a chance again. That means it needs to best the previous results from the DCEU, which notoriously spent five years and nine movies in a row unable to break past the $450 million range.
So yes, any new effort has to best that, or what’s even the point? There’s no version of events in which I think Superman will possibly fail to top $500 million, but just to entertain the hypothetical a moment (which requires the film to open with just $100 million domestic, the same internationally, and then fall off a cliff from bad audience word of mouth so it finishes with a mere 2x to 2.4x final multiplier) a box office failure of that degree would likely mean WBD intervention to insist on changes to in-production projects and some reevaluation of the rest of the plans for these properties.
It might also mean a big push to merge The Batman franchise into the DCU. Lots of “what if” and “hypothetically” things we can say here, and it’s all of course unlikely and pure speculation, but it’s also realistic to admit that the failure of Superman to successfully launch a new DCU won’t be shrugged off or treated as not that big of a deal. Studios tamp down expectations and provide themselves cover, but math is math.
I do think that a $500-600 million outcome can be treated as a moral victory, especially if Jurassic World: Rebirth surges despite its B audience grade and holds well enough to still be the undisputed ruler of summer movie box office season. But the closer to the lower end of that range, the less happy and more note-sending WBD is likely to be; and the closer to the high end of that range, the more likely the suits will leave Gunn alone and let him build upon that success.
The best argument in Gunn’s favor in the event the film underperforms (and again, lest the high emotions of fandom at this moment cause anyone to react harshly here, let me remind you I in fact expect the film to overperform, we’re just discussing all scenarios and why there are realistically certain lines and dollar amounts that need to be reached) is to point to Batman Begins.
Christopher Nolan’s and David Goyer’s near-perfect reboot had to not just stand on its own merits, but also serve as a reset of the public’s perception of the entire Batman character and franchise. It was also released during a time when there were still only a few superhero franchises, most all of them Marvel, and the MCU had yet to ignite a fire that turned comic books into the biggest genre at the box office. So there was no bat-mania or presumption of mainstream appeal guaranteed, and the film’s box office was relatively modest but enough to show it wasn’t being rejected.
Batman had been tacitly welcomed back into the theatrical fold, and it was up to him to prove he should be allowed permanent membership again. WB bet on it, and the result was The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises.
If Gunn’s Superman achieves $500-550, that will be the low end of “good enough, continue” territory, but Batman Begins teaches the same lesson in a DC context that we see in Marvel’s Phase One approach, albeit differently-motivated in investment terms. But the outcomes speak for themselves, and to Gunn’s benefit as long as Superman demonstrates an improvement over the DCEU’s reception.
Reviews and early audience reactions suggest that’s going to be the case, and with both of those things a $600 million box office becomes much easier to trumpet as a victory, and a sign of great things to come for a revived DC cinematic brand. There is still, however, the fact of financial investments and WBD’s attempts to restructure and position their biggest IP for maximum revenue streams, and nobody should believe they don’t have a number in mind.
Man of Steel grossed about $670 million back in 2013. Adjusting for tickets sold and ticket prices today, that’s about $800-900 million. Of course, Man of Steel came with Nolan’s and Goyer’s pedigree and on the heels of their enormously successful billion dollar Batman movies. Likewise, the bag baggage around DC (specifically, around their biggest characters) had been shed at that time, and hadn’t been as overarching as it was in the final years of the DCEU.
So if we grant Superman some grace for its own position being a bit tougher than Man of Steel had it, and accounting for unpredictable audiences and Covid era and so on, then there’s probably a range somewhere between $700-800 million that the studios are hoping to hit. They can qualify that in many ways, but at the end of the day the budget and marketing and desire to launch an entire IP-wide shared cinematic universe capable of sustaining major theatrical investments and generate billions in merchandising will require Superman’s success at the box office.
If $500-600 million can be justified, and if $600-700 million can contextually be seen as the all-good signal, then $700-800 million is where most folks probably hope and expect it to land – and where it probably should if it wants to avoid having to offer those explanations. And I have faith in my gut and in all of the math pointing toward Superman scoring a big enough opening and good enough audience word of mouth to land where it needs to, if not higher.
Superman hits the big screen with Thursday night previews ahead of its opening day Friday July 11th, and I’ll have updated box office estimates and audience reactions this weekend for you, as well as an assessment of the film’s likely flight path into the future as it shares multiplexes with Fantastic Four: First Steps. It remains to be seen what role Jurassic World: Rebirth will continue to play, but that too will be on my radar in the weekend reports, so stay tuned and check back soon, because it’s going to be an interesting summer at the box office.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2025/07/09/superman-eyes-130-million-domestic-debut-with-85-fresh-reviews/