ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 12: Dalton Kincaid #86 of the Buffalo Bills reacts against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter during the AFC Wild Card Playoffs at Highmark Stadium on January 12, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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Four teams are on a bye in the NFL Week 10 slate. Sunday’s action starts with an international contest before an imbalanced afternoon split of games. There are seven games in the 1:00 p.m. ET window and only three in the late-afternoon window, starting at 4:05 p.m. ET. This piece will look at two enticing player props on the 1:00 p.m. ET slate.
NFL Week 10 Player Props
Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills – TE)
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM
The Bills are 9.5-point betting favorites in Miami against the Dolphins this week. The game’s sizable spread creates some risk for Dalton Kincaid’s receiving outlook. If the Bills steamroll the Dolphins, they might not need to utilize their talented pass-catching tight end heavily. Instead, they could utilize fellow tight ends Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes to run roughshod over the Dolphins on the ground.
James Cook came out of last week’s thrilling victory against the Chiefs slightly banged up, which led to him sitting out Wednesday’s practice. Nevertheless, Dr. Kyle Trimble of Banged Up Bills doesn’t expect Cook’s injury to sideline him this week.
While Cook returned to practice on Thursday and will likely play, the Bills could lighten his load by mixing in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. Alternatively, they could turn to Josh Allen and the passing attack more often. Regardless, even if the Bills maintain their standard play-calling tendencies, Kincaid is talented enough to make the most of a plus matchup and exceed 37.5 receiving yards against the Dolphins.
Kincaid has just a 51.9% route participation rate, but he’s made the most of it by logging a 22.3% air yards share, 0.27 targets per route run, and 18.3% first-read rate, 27 receptions (3.9 per game), 411 receiving yards (58.7 per game) and 3.34 yards per route run, via the Fantasy Points data suite.
Miami’s propensity to play two-high coverage at the NFL’s fifth-highest rate (57.9%) this season is ideal for Kincaid’s opportunity to amass receiving yardage against his AFC East foes. Kincaid’s 0.28 targets per route run against two-high coverage pace the Bills this season, and his 3.02 yards per route run trails only Hawes’s 3.27 yards per route run, but the former has tallied his stellar mark on a sample of 54 routes versus only 15 for the latter.
Kincaid has surpassed 37.5 receiving yards in four of seven games this year, with a median of 48. He carved Miami up for 66 receiving yards in Week 3, and the Dolphins have struggled mightily against tight ends. Miami has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (68.2) to tight ends this season. Moreover, seven have bested 37.5 receiving yards against the Dolphins this year. Kincaid should stay hot after barbecuing the Chiefs for 101 receiving yards last week and comfortably clear the low bar of 37.5 receiving yards this week.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – AUGUST 9: J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Minnesota Vikings runs the ball during the NFL Preseason 2025 game between Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on August 9, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
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J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings – QB)
Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM
J.J. McCarthy will start just the fourth game of his professional career on Sunday after missing his entire rookie season while recovering from surgery to repair his meniscus. Fortunately, knee surgery didn’t sap McCarthy of his rushing ability.
McCarthy ran for 18 yards on just two attempts in his lone preseason contest in 2024. He logged another eight rushing yards on his only rush attempt in one preseason game played this year.
College rushing statistics for a quarterback usually deduct their sack yardage. Thankfully, Pro Football Focus doesn’t penalize quarterbacks for their sack yardage when calculating rushing yardage, and they credited McCarthy with 894 rushing yards at 6.0 yards per carry on 149 career rush attempts for the Michigan Wolverines.
McCarthy hasn’t posted jaw-dropping rushing statistics during his first three regular-season contests. Nevertheless, he’s averaged 20.7 rushing yards per game, with a median of 25. McCarthy ran for a season-low 12 yards last week after posting precisely 25 in each of his first two games, but last week’s total was slightly misleading since he lost four yards while kneeling out the clock in a victory.
The Vikings are 4.0-point underdogs against the visiting Ravens this week. McCarthy likely won’t be in the victory formation and kneeling out the clock this week. Furthermore, if he’s in a negative game script, he’ll need to drop back to pass to keep pace with the visitors, awarding him scrambling opportunities.
Baltimore has faced a mix of immobile pocket quarterbacks, such as Joe Flacco, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, and more mobile ones, like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Caleb Williams and to a lesser extent, C.J. Stroud. Unsurprisingly, the immobile quarterbacks all had fewer than 18.5 rushing yards against the Ravens. However, Allen (30 rushing yards), Stroud (30 rushing yards) and Williams (24 rushing yards) each recorded more than 18.5 rushing yards against Baltimore. McCarthy is closer to the archetype of quarterbacks who’ve bested 18.5 rushing yards against the Ravens this year than those who haven’t, making him a good bet to exceed that mark on Sunday afternoon.