Summer Movie Blockbusters Have Returned

The movie industry is having its strongest year since before the pandemic. Already through July 19, North America box office is $4.42 billion and is poised to surpass all of 2021 before the end of this month. Furthermore, domestic movie ticket sales have already doubled compared to all of 2020. Nonetheless, with fewer movies being released, ticket sales remain about 30% lower compared to 2019.

This summer, which is the most important season for the movie industry, the studios have rolled out a number of blockbusters, targeting younger age groups and families, the two groups most likely to see summer movies. Driving box office sales has been a series of popular sequels and the confidence moviegoers have that theaters are now safe. A survey from the National Research Group found 85% of heavy moviegoers now feel secure when at a theater, up from 65% in January.

The top grossing movie of the year so far has been Top Gun: Maverick (ParamountPARA
) which has garnered over $620 million in North America since its release Memorial Day weekend. The sequel ranks among the ten highest grossing domestic movies of all-time.

Kicking off the summer season (which starts in early May) was Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Disney) released on May 6. The movie has since grossed over $410 million in North America and ranks 36^th overall in North America box office.

An early sign that moviegoing was on the rise was Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony), released for the 2021 Holiday Season (on December 17). The sequel now ranks third in domestic box office grossing $804 million. Another early sign of a blockbuster summer was the release of The Batman on March 4 which has grossed nearly $370 million domestically.

After Memorial Day there were several movies released that packed theaters. On June 10 Jurassic World: Dominion (Universal) was released and in just over one month has grossed $360 million in North America. The top grossing movie for the Fourth of July weekend was Universal’s Minions: The Rise of Gru. Followed by Disney’s Thor: Love and Thunder released the following week. Both films have already surpassed $200 million in domestic ticket sales.

There are other signs moviegoers have returned to the theaters. This summer there have been five opening weekends that generated $100+ million. Shawn Robbins, an analyst at Boxoffice.com notes; Minions: The Rise of Gru and Thor: Love and Thunder was the first time two different titles had exceeded $100 million in box office in consecutive opening weekends since 2018. ComscoreSCOR
reports during the first half of the summer season (May 1-July 10, 2022), domestic box office reached $2.27 billion, only 12% below the ticket sales for the comparable weeks in 2019. Over half of all domestic ticket sales so far this year have been sold between May 1 and July 10.

According to boxofficemojo.com, in June, there were $968.8 million in box office sales. This was the highest monthly total since December 2019. Also, during the weekend of June 24-26, four different movies grossed over $20 million domestically. That weekend was led by Elvis (Warner Bros.) with an estimated $31.2 million, followed by Top Gun: Maverick ($29.6 million), Jurassic World: Dominion $26.7 million) and Universal’s The Black Phone ($23.6 million). It was the first time that has happened on a non-Holiday weekend in five years.

This year the domestic box office is expected to outpace China for the first time since 2019. Artisan Gateway reports that year-over-year the box office in China during the first half of 2022 declined by 38% to $2.6 billion. Among the reasons were lockdowns in China and such popular Marvel releases as Thor: Love and Thunder have been banned because of political differences and LGBTQ+ themes. This was the fifth straight Marvel movie banned in China.

Globally, Top Gun: Maverick is the first movie released in 2022 to gross over $1 billion worldwide. The film has become the highest grossing Tom Cruise movie. Box office sales is split evenly among international (50.1%) and domestic (49.9%) markets. The only other movie that grossed $1 billion globally since the pandemic was Spider-Man: No Way Home at $1.901 billion. (Despite the strong global sales, that movie was also banned in China, reportedly because the Statue of Liberty appeared in the film.)

Two other movies released this year have grossed over $900 million worldwide Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Jurassic World: Dominion. In both instances global box office share was greater than North America, at 57% and 60% respectively.

Heading into Labor Day, studios typically release lower or mid-range budget movies that target older adults who tend to be less frequent moviegoers. Typically, these films do not perform as well in the box office. Also, there are movies originally slated for a 2022 release that have been pushed back because of continued production delays from the pandemic. Hence, in the upcoming months movie attendance is expected to slow down.

In the final two months movie attendance usually returns for the important Holiday season as studios return to releasing big budget films. This year the most anticipated Holiday season movie will be the long-awaited sequel from Disney; Avatar: The Way Out of Water. The film will be released on December 16, 13 years after Avatar, the highest grossing movie of all-time, was released.

Industry analysts forecast the North American box office to reach $7.5 billion to $8 billion in 2022. A significant increase from 2021. With studios placing a greater emphasis on streaming and home entertainment coupled with fewer movie releases from the pandemic, domestic box office is expected to be 30% below the record year of 2019. Some industry analysts however, forecast the North American box office benefiting from higher ticket prices and movies being released to surpass $11 billion by 2024.

With Wall Street expressing concerns about streaming video, perhaps studios should focus more attention on theatrical releases. They have had a successful business model for over a century and continue to be a popular form of entertainment for millions.