Key Insights:
- Sui price jumped 20%, but the 3-month trend is still down more than 50%.
- RSI, CMF, and OBV show weak support, so the rally may not hold.
- A real trend change needs Sui crypto to break above $1.88 with strength.
Sui price moved up almost 20% in the last 24 hours. This erased most of the weekly loss and turned the 7-day move into a small gain.
But the bigger picture is still weak because the SUI crypto is down more than 50% over the last three months. The chart shows some strength today, but it also shows signs that this jump may not last.
Sui Price Chart Shows a Breakout, but It May Not Be Real
Sui price has been moving inside a falling-wedge pattern since early October. A wedge like this often leads to a breakout, and now the price has pushed above the upper line. At first look, this seems bullish.
But the RSI (Relative Strength Index) tells a different story for the SUI crypto. RSI is a tool that shows if the price is gaining or losing strength.
Between Nov. 10 and Dec. 2, the price made a lower high, but the RSI made a higher high. This is called hidden bearish divergence. In simple words, it means the downtrend can continue even if the price jumps for a short time.
The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, also shows mixed signs. CMF tells us if big buyers or big sellers are active. It broke its trendline during the rally, which helped the move up.
But CMF is still under the zero line, so big buying is not strong yet. The same thing happened in early November. CMF broke the line, people got excited, but the line never stayed above zero, and the price dropped again.
The strongest bull trap warning comes from On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV measures volume strength.
Since late October, OBV has stayed under a falling line and has not broken it for SUI crypto. Even worse, from 24 Nov. to 2 Dec., the price made a higher high, but OBV made a lower high.
This is a bearish OBV divergence, which means the rally does not have enough support behind it. All these point to the SUI price rally eventually becoming a bull trap.
Analysts Say Bounce Is ‘Just Noise’
Analysts on X also disagree with each other. One top trader says this 8%–20% move is “just noise” because Sui is still far under the strong resistance area.
Another analyst says a buy signal appeared on his trend-shift indicator, but it only works if support holds. One chart says Sui price can revisit $1.60, but it needs the current zone to stay firm first.
For Sui crypto to turn this jump into something real, the price must break $1.88. This line is the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which has stopped Sui many times in the past. Without a clean move above $1.88, the chart still leans bearish.
If the rally fails, the first support is at $1.66. If Sui loses this, the next support is $1.53. Breaking $1.53 would put the price at risk of falling toward $1.31. That would erase almost all of yesterday’s gains.
The chart shows too many warning signs. The RSI shows hidden bearish divergence. CMF is not above zero. OBV is still weak and moving in the opposite direction of the price.
And the three-month trend is still down more than 50%. All these together mean the breakout candle may not be enough to flip the trend.
Sui price looks strong on the surface, but without strong buying behind the move, this 20% jump can still be a bull trap. The price needs real confirmation above $1.88. Until then, the risk of another drop stays high.