Subtropical Storm Nicole Prompts U.S. Hurricane Watches

Well that escalated quickly. This weekend I warned that a subtropical system was likely to form and impact Florida by the end of the week. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for parts of eastern Florida as well as the Bahamas. Additionally, storm surge and tropical storm watches extend from parts of Georgia to southern Florida. Here are four things to know right now about Subtropical Storm Nicole, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Watches Have Been Issued

Nicole is expected to become a hurricane before landfall. The National Hurricane Center has issued the following watches as of mid-afternoon on November 7th, 2022:

Hurricane Watch: Northwestern Bahamas, the East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach, and Lake Okeechobee.

Storm Surge Watch: Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach.

Tropical Storm Watch: Altamaha Sound southward to Volusia Brevard County Line, Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef.

The Subtropical Storm Will Intensify

Right now, Nicole is classified as a Subtropical storm. I actually hate the public use of the term because it likely creates confusion for the public. So what is a subtropical storm anyhow? NOAA Glossary defines a subtropical cyclone as, “A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.” In some ways, it is similar to extratropical systems or “Nor’easter” lows because as the Glossary points out, they, “….are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough.” They originate in the subtropics. The National Hurricane Center discussion at 11 am AST said, “The structure of Nicole this morning remains distinctly subtropical, as the low-level circulation remains tangled up with an elongated upper-level low.” The wind field is broad and contains maximum values near 45 mph. However, forecasters expect the winds to increase to qualify as a hurricane over the next 2 to 3 days. The official track of the storm calls for a landfall late Wednesday evening between the Space Coast of Florida and Miami. Remember, focus on the cone rather than the center line as you prepare for Nicole.

Broad Impacts Possible From Florida To Georgia

Impacts of the storm will be broad because of the size of the wind field. Meteorologist Jack Sillin’s Tweet is a good synopsis. Tropical storm conditions could extend far beyond the center of the storm into coastal Georgia and South Carolina. If you live in any of the watch regions, it is time to prepare for Nicole.

Nicole Could Make History

While hurricanes are possible in the November, Nicole could certainly notch its way into the record books. Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach tweeted, “If Nicole were to make landfall as a hurricane, it would be the latest calendar year hurricane to make landfall along the east coast of Florida on record.” He also pointed out that Hurricane Kate (1985, Mexico Beach Fl) was the only hurricane on record to make a continental U.S. landfall after November 4th.

Nicole has increased the named storm and hurricane count to about what we would expect in an Atlantic hurricane season. Remember, no hurricane formed in the month of August so many people assumed the season might trend below-average. Pre-seasonal projects called for an above average season. Kloztbach made this point about the latter part of the season. He wrote, “Subtropical storm #Nicole is the 3rd Atlantic named storm to form since Halloween (along with #Lisa and #Martin). This is the most Atlantic named storms to form between October 31 – November 7 on record.”

.