Sub-0.93 is rare for EUR/CHF – ING

EUR/CHF is trading at sub-0.93, which is quite rare. Some may argue that it should be trading higher given some slightly better news out of French politics, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/CHF to hang around this 0.92/93 area for now

“However, it is probably the eurozone macro story which is playing out here. Hard eurozone data has been coming in on the soft side in recent months. This has seen a re-pricing of short-dated EUR swap rates, off around 10bp since their late September highs.”

“Swiss rates are priced with a ‘zero bound constraint’ in mind. Even though the Swiss National Bank does not rule it out, it clearly does not want to take rates negative again. This is firming up the view that the SNB’s hands are tied and leaves EUR/CHF offered.”

“We expect EUR/CHF to hang around this 0.92/93 area until there is some positive reappraisal of eurozone growth prospects, which may not happen until next year.”