St. Louis Cardinals Off To Unusually Dysfunctional Start

When someone asks the identity of the best major league baseball club of the 21st century, absolutely no one says the St. Louis Cardinals – though perhaps they should. No, they haven’t been as dominant as the Los Angeles Dodgers in recent seasons, but they have won twice as many World Series titles this century.

The Cardinals have finished over .500 every season since 2007, and before that you have to go back to 1999 to find their previous sub-.500 campaign. Their last back-to-back sub-.500 seasons? The 1994-95 strike years. Before that, unaffected by work stoppages? How about 1958-59. For real.

The Cardinals have made the playoffs in 16 of the 23 seasons since 2000. They’ve seamlessly shifted from one core player nucleus to another, acquiring star players like Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and others to keep the trains running on time.

Coming into this season, the club realized that one of their recent greats, catching stalwart Yadier Molina, was riding off into the sunset and that a new era was set to begin at that position. There were options on both the free agent and trading markets, and the Cards had the funds for the former and an outfield surplus to deal for the latter option. To this point in the 2023 season, these intertwined decisions have been fateful ones.

Through Monday’s games the Cardinals stand at 12-24, dead last in the woeful NL Central. How woeful? The division posted a cumulative 5-26 record last week. That is not a misprint. The Cards are far from out of the hunt. But the actions of this typically astute front office in piecing together the current roster clearly rate as unforced errors as we stand here today.

Let’s look at these two related issues separately, and then bring them together:

THE OUTFIELD/DESIGNATED HITTER LOGJAM

The Cards’ early season struggles are largely unrelated to their team offensive performance. Despite the fact that only 1B Paul Goldschmidt is playing at or near his expected level – fellow 2022 MVP candidate 3B Nolan Arenado has been mired in a deep season-long funk – the club is squarely in the middle of the pack in the NL in runs scored.

The club features a young, deep contingent of players slotted into the outfield and DH roles. Outfield plate appearances are currently being split up by Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson, all aged 24 and 25. They will soon be rejoined by Tyler O’Neill, 28, when he comes off of the injured list. Jordan Walker, 21, began the season in the lineup and acquitted himself well – he likely has the highest upside of the entire group. He had forced his way into the equation with a big spring training, then received all of 20 games of playing time before being dispatched to Triple-A.

Of that group, Carlson, Burleson and O’Neill have hit the least, but all but Burleson have established credible levels of MLB performance. Nootbaar has been an OBP machine. Toss in Nolan Gorman, 23, who was their primary 2B in 2022, and is tied for the team lead in homers and been the second best offensive player on the club behind Goldschmidt this season, as their primary DH.

All shone during their time in the minors. Each season I prepare an ordered list of full-season minor league prospects based on their production and age relative to their level and league. All but Burleson peaked as top 100 hitters during their development periods – Walker ranked #1 in 2021, Carlson peaked at #8 in 2019, O’Neill at #19 in 2018, Gorman at #61 in 2022, Nootbaar at #87 in 2021 and Burleson at #106 in 2022. Bottom line – this is a strong, deep group. You know, one they could have traded from to obtain the catching heir apparent to Molina.

Once O’Neill is healthy, there won’t be enough outfield at bats to go around, and that doesn’t even include Walker, who is currently struggling in the minors. (Oh, if his development is materially set back by his perhaps premature promotion.) And now – drum roll please – we have a new entrant into the DH at bat sweepstakes.

THE SIGNING/MISHANDLING OF “CATCHER” WILLSON CONTRERAS

This past offseason, the Cards’ two primary catching options were the A’s Sean Murphy (via trade) and the Cubs’ Willson Contreras (via free agency). The Cards reportedly were quite interested in Murphy, who was eventually traded to the Braves, with whom he quickly signed a 6-year, $73 million deal. Murphy, 28, is the superior defender, and while his bat did come on a bit last season, it was judged by most to not be in Contreras’ league. The A’s supposedly wanted Nootbaar to be included in any trade package for Murphy, and the Cards balked.

They then turned their attention to Contreras, 31, and signed him to a 5-year, $87.5 million deal. Though a bat-first player, he has never been considered a truly subpar defensive receiver. Basically, in the lower end of the average range, and certainly a dropoff from the legendary Molina.

Well, the Cards gave Contreras all of a month behind the plate before essentially making him the scapegoat for their early-season struggles. They had a high-level pow-wow between some of their veteran pitchers, Manager Oliver Marmol and his coaching staff and members of the front office and Contreras, and the outcome was that he would no longer catch, and instead be in the mix for outfield/DH at bats until further notice. The stance has been softened somewhat, taking the outfield out of the equation, but this still seems so wrong – so unCardinals-like, if you will – on so many levels.

They already have too many cooks in the OF/DH kitchen, and are now squeezing one more in there – one who’s guaranteed $17.5 million per season through 2027. All while Jordan Walker sits in Triple-A.

Plus, while it certainly can be argued that Contreras’ presence might have had some impact on the pitching staff’s poor performance this season, the fact that Adam Wainwright, who has been injured all season, and Jack Flaherty, who has been just awful for a while now, were the leaders of the anti-Contreras faction is pretty rich.

The latest out of St. Louis indicates that Wainwright and Flaherty have Contreras’ back and think he can work through this.

Ultimately, it appears the Cardinals made some key mistakes in the offseason and in spring training. Murphy is the younger, better catcher, and his development arrow continues to point upward. The Cards could have eased their outfield logjam by acquiring him, and Walker would still be in the big league lineup.

But the focus should have immediately been placed on the player they acquired. Any red flags re: Contreras as a receiver should have been highlighted and addressed in spring training. The Cards made a significant investment in the player – whom I still believe to be a very good one – and should never have hung him out to dry like this.

That said, this all could still work out for the Cards. Contreras needs to re-emerge as their catcher, and soon. This very public calling out of his abilities could have one of two effects – the player can collapse under its weight, or rise to the occasion. It’s foolish to expect Willson Contreras to be Yadi Molina – but he can still be the guy the Cards thought they were signing – an offense-first catcher with good-enough defense. Well, at least for the early stages of his contract.

Molina helped the Cards’ pitching staff pitch well over its head in the recent past. Now, Contreras only has to not hurt them, while club brass likely eventually deals from its position player surplus to add to its pitching talent. They struck once with the addition of Jordan Montgomery last summer, and may need to do so again. In a historically weak NL Central, I have a suspicion that the Cardinals will still be heard from.