Speculators trim oil positions – ING

Oil prices sold off heavily on Friday, with ICE Brent settling 2.68% lower on the day and WTI briefly trading below US$70/bbl this morning for the first time this year, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

President Trump is calling on OPEC+ to increase supply

“Recent weakness in prices comes amid intensifying noise about where OPEC+ will take supply levels. The group is currently cutting supply by 2.2m b/d. It’s scheduled to bring this supply back onto the market gradually from April. However, there are suggestions that OPEC+ is considering a delay.”

“Any delay would lead to a change in the oil balance, leaving the market relatively tighter than we expected. Any delay would also likely not go down well with President Trump, who’s calling on OPEC+ to increase supply.”

“The latest positioning data suggests market sentiment turning negative, with speculators cutting positions in ICE Brent by 23,931 lots. This left them with a net long of 265,223 lots as of last Tuesday. Driving the move is a combination of longs being liquidating and fresh shorts entering the market. Trade and tariff concerns, along with a push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, will weigh somewhat on the market.”