S&P 500 forecast for end of 2024

Last year, and its final quarter in particular, saw remarkable growth both on the stock market and with numerous cryptocurrencies. 

The growth was largely driven by renewed optimism stemming from numerous positive developments, which include a pause in interest rate hikes, cooling inflation, overall strength in the technology sector – particularly when it comes to artificial intelligence (AI) companies and related services – and many others.

The S&P 500 index  – the index of the 500 largest stocks in the U.S. – started 2023 close to 3,850 points and finished the year significantly higher, around 4,770. The dramatic Q4 rise saw the index surge approximately 600 points between late October and the end of December.

Overall, the S&P 500 is up 19.87% in the last 52 weeks and has continued its growth in 2024 – albeit modestly – being 0.86% in the green since January 1.

High hopes have been set for 2024, but several newer events, such as growing instability in the Middle East, which saw its latest escalation with the U.S.-led bombing of Yemen, and higher-than-expected inflation figures have somewhat dampened investor optimism.

How will S&P 500 fare in 2024

The outlook for the S&P 500 index in 2024 is notably mixed. On the one hand, there have been some highly optimistic bullish predictions, with the most notable example perhaps coming from Oppenheimer, which set the yearly target as high as 5,200 points.

Goldman Sachs analysts have also been notable bulls when it comes to the expected performance of America’s largest companies, having set their sights at 5,100 points. BMO Capital Markets and Citigroup (NYSE: C) concur with the assessment, while Bank of America’s (NYSE: BAC) forecast is slightly lower at 5,000.

S&P 500 bears

On the other side, there are several notable bears. Marko Kolanovic, the chief market strategist and co-head of global research of the banking giant JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), predicts a 12% downside that would see the index fall to 4,200.

BCA Research is, perhaps, the most pessimistic as it forecasts the worst market crash since 2008 due to recessionary risks and sees the S&P 500 falling as low as 3,300 points.

Major institutions’ forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2024 are also reflective of the banks’ overall outlook for the economy and the stock market in the current year. Even upon zooming out, the same divisions are clearly visible.

Barclays, BNY Mellon (NYSE: BK), and UBS are notably bullish on large American stocks. Citi, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) are warning that there are both opportunities and dangers.

JP Morgan, Deutsche, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), on the other hand, believe investors will largely be disappointed  – at least in the first half of the year.

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Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.