Sorting Out The Crowded Field For National League Rookie Of The Year

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – MAY 15: Drake Baldwin #30 of the Atlanta Braves hits an RBI single during the fifth inning against the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on May 15, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

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When a league gives out an award every year, someone has to win it no matter what. The group of candidates for the National League Rookie of the Year isn’t as strong as usual, but they’re tightly packed. Anyone could pull ahead or fall behind in the final month of the season.

There are only four rookie position players in the National League with at least 2.0 WAR (Baseball-Reference version), and the leader with 2.7 has very little chance of winning the award. That’s Chicago Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw, who has had a tumultuous campaign after winning the starting job out of spring training.

The Cubs had to send Shaw down in April when he was hitting just .172. They recalled him in May to initial success, but he cooled down again and took a .198/.276/.280 batting line into the All-Star break. Since then, he has been red hot, batting .281/.320/.614, and raising his full-season batting line to .227/.291/.399. That’s still far below Rookie of the Year standards, and much of his WAR comes from defense—though more advanced defensive metrics don’t rate him as highly.

Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is probably the favorite for the award. His 2.6 WAR is right behind Shaw’s, and his numbers look a lot better. He’s hitting .280/.351/.462, and his 15 home runs lead NL rookies.

The Braves are using the lefty-swinging Baldwin in a platoon timeshare with right-handed-hitting Sean Murphy. It would be beneficial for them to get him more playing time down the stretch, either at catcher or designated hitter. If he wins the Rookie of the Year, Atlanta will receive a bonus pick after the first round of the 2026 draft due to MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) rules.

Two Milwaukee Brewers players are in the mix as well. Switch-hitting left fielder Isaac Collins is an older rookie who turned 28 in July, but he’s hitting like he belongs in MLB. He has a .274/.371/.425 batting line across 383 plate appearances and 2.5 WAR. He also leads NL rookies with 16 stolen bases.

Caleb Durbin, who was acquired from the New York Yankees this offseason in the Devin Williams trade, has settled in at third base for the Brewers. He has 2.3 WAR, built on a foundation of a .257/.328/.391 batting line.

Milwaukee has a third Rookie of the Year candidate in starting pitcher Chad Patrick. He has a 3.60 ERA over 20 starts and 105 innings. Cubs starter Cade Horton could also make some noise in the award race. He boasts a 2.92 ERA over 98 2/3 innings, and posted a 1.20 ERA over six starts and 30 innings in August. Horton and Shaw are also eligible for PPI if they were to win.

Believe it or not, the NL rookie WAR leader for pitchers is Hurston Waldrep, who has thrown just 35 2/3 innings for the Braves. His 1.01 ERA over six appearances has given him 1.7 WAR, but a pitcher with such little playing time is unlikely to factor into the awards voting.