‘Sonic 2’ Races To Huge $6.2 Million Thursday

Paramount and Sega’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2, starring James Marsden, Jim Carrey, Ben Schwartz and Idris Elba, earned a whopping $6.2 million in preview screenings, including Thursday evening shows and (presumably) the Wednesday night sneak previews. That’s double the $3 million earned by the first Sonic in its preview frame back in mid-February of 2020. The original film, buoyed by years of interest, decent reviews and a certain cross-nostalgia coup that was Jim Carrey as Dr. Robotnik, opened with $58 million over the Fri-Sun frame of its $70 million Fri-Mon President’s Day opening weekend. With this exceptionally strong preview gross, well, even F9 pulled $70 million from a $7.1 million Thursday gross which would translate to a $61 million opening weekend for Sonic 2.

Yes, we could easily see the $110 million sequel nab an opening weekend closer to $65 million than $55 million, especially as A) the reviews are still pretty good (66% and 5.9/10 on Rotten Tomatoes), B) the film is a sequel to a well-liked predecessor that got plenty of post-theatrical play in early lockdown and C) Knuckles and Tails are added value elements. Yes, there is always a danger that even well-received kid-targeted blockbusters (like The LEGO Movie) can spawn “adults were only curious the first time” sequels. However, I’d argue Sonic, Robotnik, Knuckles and Tails are marquee characters. Moreover, A) Morbius isn’t exactly setting anyone’s critical acclaim meter on fire and B) we haven’t had a big “kid-specific” flick since Sing 2 last Christmas.

I can’t think of a single reason why Jeff Fowler’s perfectly enjoyable and impressively up-scaled follow-up won’t nab a best-case scenario debut this weekend. It smartly plays as a high-quality kid flick with the nostalgic Easter Eggs firmly positioned as seasoning rather than the main ingredients. While F9 seems like a “cautious optimism” comparison, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is a kid flick and those tend to skew smaller in terms of how much of the weekend is represented by previews. Plenty of interested kids will have to wait until the proper weekend thanks to mean mom and/or diabolical dad. Offhand, if it legs like Uncharted ($3.7 million/$44 million) or Jumanji: The Next Level ($4.7 million/$59 million), then Sonic 2 is looking at a $73-$77 million opening weekend.

For the record, I don’t want to set the stage for “disappointment” if the film “only” opens with $50-$55 million this weekend. I’m choosing optimism because that’s what the tea leaves say, but this is a $110 million flick that’s already earned $30 million overseas and should play for weeks and weeks due to the lack of explicitly kid-friendly biggies between now and (depending on your definition) Jurassic World: Dominion (which certainly seems to be selling “adventure” over “horror”) on June 10 or Lightyear on June 17. Once again, Paramount is on a genuine hot streak, with solid earnings from Scream, Jackass Forever, The Lost City and now presumably Sonic 2. And just like that, they have the benefit of the doubt for Top Gun: Maverick.

Meanwhile, Universal opened Ambulance last night. The R-rated actioner, about two bank robbers hijacking an occupied ambulance, stars Jake Gyllenhaal, Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Eiza Gonzalez, and is a return to smaller ($40 million) grounded action for the Michael Bay. It’s quite good, if overlong and redundant in that third act (ironically the same issue I had with RRR and Everything Everywhere All At Once), and I’m hoping those constantly complain about adult-skewing, non-franchise, “new-to-you” star vehicles will show up this weekend. The film earned $700,000 in preview screenings, suggesting a $10 million domestic debut. That’s not great, but this isn’t 1995.