‘Sonic 2’ Cements Paramount’s Miraculous Covid-Era Comeback

What most impressed me about Sonic the Hedgehog 2, beyond the weirdly relaxing notion that it wasn’t trying to be a pretentiously spectacular motion picture with aspirations of Oscar glory or all-time status (unlike the last few years of Marvel/DC superhero movies), was that its pleasures were rooted both in its IP (Sonic being Sonic amid video game-faithful action setpieces) and in variables specific to itself (Jim Carrey’s nostalgic comedy, distinctly specific humor courtesy of Idris Elba’s dimbulb Knuckles and Natasha Rothwell’s righteously furious Rachel, etc.). It’s an example of the golden rule of IP-specific franchises, whereby you make a movie that’s fun and appealing even to folks who don’t care about the brand. And its deserved breakout success, a $71 million domestic and $141 million worldwide opening, is yet another win in what is this year’s most inexplicable comeback story.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is Paramount’s fourth unquestionable theatrical success in just the first few months of 2022. Scream inexplicably revived a dead franchise 11 years after the commercial failure ($98 million on a $40 million budget) of Scream 4. The well-received riff on legacy sequels, which may have benefited from a generation that grew up arguing Scream 4 was “good, actually” (shaking my head in disapproval at today’s kids), earned $81 million domestic and $140 million worldwide (more than Halloween Kills) on a $24 million budget. Jackass Forever, the first Jackass-adjacent film since Bad Grandpa in late 2013, earned $80 million global on a $10 million budget. They opened Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum’s rom-com adventure The Lost City to $31 million domestic. With $69 million domestic thus far, the $70 million original has a shot at $100 million by the end.

Sonic 2 makes 4/4, and I’m starting to be slightly optimistic about Top Gun: Maverick. Tom Cruise movies that aren’t Mission: Impossible films usually have an over/under $400 million worldwide ceiling (which would be okay if the budget is closer to Oblivion than Edge of Tomorrow), but Paramount thinks that they have a crowdpleaser on their hands. Even with China potentially off the table (with or without Covid-related closures, the marketplace isn’t as it was in 2017), I’m officially giving it the benefit of the doubt. If it scores, then Paramount will have supplied the only theatrical hit of January, one of two big hits in February (alongside Uncharted), one of two in March (alongside The Batman), one of two (or three) in April (alongside Morbius and maybe Fantastic Beasts 3) and one of two in May (alongside Doctor Strange 2).

If you’ve been following the theatrical industry for the last six years, you’ll know how borderline miraculous this is. The seismic shift in viewer habits in late 2015/early 2016, whereby audiences who used to see tentpoles and smaller movies in theaters began only showing up for event movies and watching everything else (be it movies or television) via streaming platforms, arguably hit Paramount hardest among the major studios. The Viacom-owned studio had lost Marvel to Walt Disney and watched DreamWorks Animation head off to Fox (and eventually Universal), and they watched in 2016 and 2017 as their biggest remaining franchises (Star Trek Beyond, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, Transformers: The Last Knight, etc.) crashed and burned. Meanwhile, the commercial potential for the old-school star-driven, high-concept “movie-movie” (Office Christmas Party, 13 Hours, Downsizing, mother!, etc.) fell through the floor.

Yes, they still had Tom Cruise’s Mission: Impossible series, but attempts to revamp or reboot Terminator (with Genisys in 2015 and Dark Fate in 2019) and Transformers (Bumblebee in 2018) didn’t pan out, while even the surprising success of xXx: Return of Xander Cage ($346 million on an $85 million budget in 2017, with $164 million of that from China) was arguably a situational miracle. They had a mini-run in the summer 2018 (A Quiet Place, Book Club and Mission: Impossible Fallout) but the year-ender Bumblebee needed a Chinese bail-out ($171 million out of $471 million). 2019 offered little in the way of glory, RIP Gemini Man, Wonder Park and Terminator: Dark Fate, although there were small-scale wins via Rocketman, What Men Want and Pet Semetary. Tragically, 2020 was supposed to be a comeback year.

The slate arranged by (ironically) now-departed Jim Gianopulos for 2020 included A Quiet Place part II, Sonic the Hedgehog, Top Gun: Maverick, Spongebob Movie: Sponge On The Run, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Coming 2 America. Sonic had already overperformed to the tune of $300 million worldwide and A Quiet Place part II was tracking for a $55-$60 million domestic debut. But then Covid put the theatrical industry on ice and forced cash-hungry studios to sell some of their films to streamers. I don’t know if The Tomorrow War (very good), Without Remorse (very bad), or Infinite (very awful) would have thrived theatrically in normal circumstances. But we’ll never know because they (along with the rock-solid Aaron Sorkin melodrama and the frankly mediocre Eddie Murphy comedy) ended up on streaming platforms. Studios don’t live or die by Paw Patrol and Snake Eyes.

I’ve written a lot over the last six years about Paramount’s struggles. They found themselves with subpar IP in a world where marquee characters are the biggest theatrical “movie star” and actual actors/actresses only matter concerning which marquee characters they are playing in what branded franchise flick. Some of that is self-inflicted. They had a chance to buy Marvel before Disney swooped in. Some of it is a matter of appropriation. The early MCU movies are basically “Paramount action thrillers with superheroes.” Some of it is happenstance. Audiences once showed up to movies like Double Jeopardy, Paranormal Activity and The Godfather along with the obvious fantasy/action IP franchises. However, perhaps two years behind schedule, Sonic is Paramount’s first new IP franchise in a generation, Scream and Jackass are old IP made new and The Lost City shows they can still open a “regular movie.”

Does this mean everything is smooth sailing for Paramount? Absolutely not, but their recent dominance suggests that there may be hope. Moreover, Paramount and, yes, Sony, could be uniquely positioned to strike hard if audiences start preferring star+concept crowdpleasers and/or smaller $75-$125 million franchise flicks. Maybe this is just a lucky streak born of good fortune and a lack of competition from the likes of Warner Bros., Disney and Universal. But if this shows a genuine upswing in marketing might and commercial instincts in this weird new normal, then maybe they won’t be entirely dependent on Mission: Impossible movies and loading up Paramount+ with 4,161 Star Trek shows. Maybe, just maybe, I’ll be proven wrong about Dungeons & Dragons, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts and Star Trek 4. Maybe Brian Robbins’ Paramount Pictures can be more than just the home of Paw Patrol. Maybe…