Something’s Brewing In The Tropics That Might Affect Florida This Week

Though it is November, meteorologists like me are still watching the tropics. At the time of writing, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of interest. One is an area in the central Atlantic that may develop but is expected to move out to sea. However, an area of low pressure (Invest 98L) north of Puerto Rico could impact Florida in the coming week. Here’s what we know right now.

According to the National Hurricane Center, “This system is forecast to move northward or northwestward further into the southwestern Atlantic today and environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development.” As of Sunday morning, forecasters give this system a 70 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and a 90% chance of formation within 5 days. Based on these high odds, don’t be surprised if a subtropical or tropical depression has formed by early in the week.

By the way, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Glossary defines a subtropical cyclone as, “A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.” Unlike purely tropical systems, they can derive some of their energy from air mass temperature differences rather than the ocean heat content. The Glossary also notes that they, “….are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough.” Weather Channel expert Greg Postel called it a “Nor’easter in the Tropics.” By the way, that’s all meteorological minutia. What are the potential impacts?

It is a big week in the United States. The mid-term elections are Tuesday, and Florida is a major battleground state. The system will likely be lurking east of the Florida coast on Tuesday. Irrespective of development, the National Hurricane Center is calling for, “Increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of this week.” Some weather models have the storm approaching south or central Florida later in the week, but there is still uncertainty on timing and intensity. Hurricane preparedness meteorologist Craig Setzer has been tweeting some of the initial scenarios.

As I wrote previously in Forbes, tropical activity is certainly possible in November. After all, the official Atlantic hurricane season runs through the end of the month. According to WPLG meteorologist Michael Lowry, “Since 1980, six tropical cyclones – four tropical storms and two tropical depressions – have struck the Florida peninsula in November, all initially from the south or west, and none with maximum sustained winds over 65 mph.” If you are in the Bahamas, Florida and even Georgia, it is important that you continue to monitor the latest information from the National Hurricane Center and other credible sources.