Somehow Cy-Less Phillie Zack Wheeler Yet Again Is NL Frontrunner

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler looks in before the pitch during the third inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Saturday, Aug. 2, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)

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We’re over two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it’s time to take my first looks at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. The AL Cy Young race was examined yesterday – today it’s the NL’s turn.

If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball allowed by each ERA-qualifying pitcher, and calculate the damage they “should have” allowed based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the lower the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each pitcher’s “Tru” ERA-, and then spread it across their innings bulk to determine their “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA).

While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..

The Giants’ Logan Webb is considered a viable contender by many this season. He stands just outside the Top Ten according to my method through July 31, with 9.1 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA). He has traditionally been valued less by my method – though he is a huge grounder generator, he has typically rated as a below average contact manager due to relatively authoritative contact allowed. His durability is a huge asset, and he has made some positive strides, but still (barely) rates as an outsider here. Now let’s get to the top contenders.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Padres’ righty Dylan Cease (9.2 TPRAA) doesn’t appear to be having a very good year on the surface, but he looks better once you peel back a couple layers. He’s been exceedingly unlucky across all batted ball types (134 Unadjusted vs. 104 Adjusted Contact Score). He still walks more batters than you’d like, and at times struggles from the stretch, but the ability is certainly there. Braves’ righty Spencer Schwellenbach (9.6 TPRAA) is currently injured and won’t qualify for the ERA title at season’s end, but deserves his flowers for how he pitched when healthy. His K/BB profile is immaculate, he was among MLB leaders in innings pitched before his injury, and he induces plenty of easy ground ball outs. Giants’ lefty Robbie Ray (10.1 TPRAA) has been a poor contact manager throughout his career, but has made great strides this season. His 90.6 mph average exit speed allowed is deceptively high, but he has yielded a large number of can-of-corn 90-100 mph fly balls, keying a solid 83 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score.

Cubs’ lefty Matthew Boyd (10.2 TPRAA) has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, but has been a constant this season as his club is making a push for the NL Central crown. He’s the most extreme fly ball/pop up pitcher we’ll discuss today, with an 18.0 degree average launch angle allowed. Brewers’ righty Freddy Peralta (11.0 TPRAA) has watched the identity of his rotation-mates change all season, remaining a constant stabilizing presence. He’s actually been eerily similar to Boyd, with a fractionally lower average exit speed (by 87.8 to 87.9 mph) and average launch angle allowed (17.7 degrees).

THE TOP FIVE STARTERS

#5 – LHP Nick Lodolo (Reds) – 15.3 TPRAA, 74 “Tru”-, 71 ERA-, 87 FIP-

And now for a pretty significant jump upward in class. Lodolo’s command is among the very best in the NL, and his contact management performance (87 Adjusted Contact Score) has also been well above average. He’s struggled to remain healthy in the past, but (crosses fingers) has taken the ball every fifth day without incident this season. He’s totally diffused the run-inflating effects of his stomping grounds at Great American Ball Park.

#4 – LHP Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) – 15.6 TPRAA, 74 “Tru”-, 61 ERA-, 69 FIP-

Sanchez and the #1 guy below form the most potent #1-2 starting pitcher punch in the game today. He’s an elite sinkerballer, with a 2.7 degree average launch angle allowed this season. His contact management hasn’t been quite up to his 2024 NL Contact Manager of the Year standard, but is still well above average (89 Adjusted Contact Score). His “Tru’”- is slightly higher than his ERA- and FIP-, but is still quite impressive.

#3 – RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) – 17.6 TPRAA, 67 “Tru”-, 64 ERA-, 72 FIP-

While his fellow highly-compensated rotation-mates have gone down all aroud him, Yamamoto has gone to the post every fifth day and excelled. The top three guys on this list currently stand #1-2-3 in the NL Contact Manager of the Year race – Yamamoto has an 80 Adjusted Contact Score through July 31. He’s gotten it done by inducing plenty of ground balls and throttling fly ball authority – his 88.7 mph average fly ball exit speed allowed ranks 2nd lowest among NL ERA qualifiers.

#2 – RHP Paul Skenes (Pirates) – 22.6 TPRAA, 63 “Tru”-, 43 ERA-, 58 FIP-

He gets no run support, but Skenes’ greatness shines through. His K/BB profile is exceptional, and his contact management skill is also top shelf. He’s currently 2nd in the NL Contact Manager of the Year race with a 78 Adjusted Contact Score. His 88.3 mph average fly ball exit speed allowed is also 2nd in the NL. His “Tru”- is a bit higher than his ERA- and FIP-, but is still top notch, and he’s quietly among NL innings pitched leaders. He seems to be the mainstream favorite for the NL Cy at present, but…..

#1 – RHP Zack Wheeler (Phillies) – 29.4 TPRAA, 52 “Tru”-, 61 ERA-, 65 FIP-

He’s never won a Cy, but has been “my” winner multiple times. Here we go again. His “Tru”- is easily better than his ERA- and FIP-. What gives? Well, he’s been exceedingly unlucky on fly balls this season, with his 121 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score far exceeding his adjusted 61 mark. He’s the current leader in the NL Contact Manager of the Year race – another honor he’s earned multiple times in the past – with a 76 Adjusted Contact Score. His 87.2 mph average exit speed allowed is the lowest in the NL, and his 29.4 TPRAA is the highest of any pitcher in baseball, including AL Cy leader Tarik Skubal.

The Fangraphs WAR race has Skenes (4.5 WAR) ahead of Wheeler (4.0) through July 31.