Some Of Russia’s Last Good Troops Needed Three Weeks To Capture A Half Square Mile Of Eastern Ukraine

The Kremlin is determined to capture all of Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. The oblast after all is the seat of the separatist—and pro-Russian—Donetsk People’s Republic.

But taking Donetsk Oblast means also taking the free town of Avdiivka, five miles northwest of Donetsk city. And taking Avdiivka means taking the villages around it, including Opytne.

The Ukrainian army is fighting hard for each settlement. “Right now, the ryzz is advancing in some places, but not much,” Kenneth Gregg, a Swedish-Finnish volunteer working with the Ukrainian army, wrote on social media, using a slang term for Russians.

The Kremlin’s Donetsk gambit is turning into a costly one, at a time when Russia and its allies can’t afford casualties—especially among their better formations. The Donetsk separatist army already has buried or sent to hospitals as many men as it had in its prewar army. Reportedly another 500 wounded separatist fighters arrived at Donetsk-area hospitals between Nov. 10 and Nov. 16.

After losing as many as 100,000 of its own troops killed and wounded since widening its war on Ukraine starting in February, the Kremlin drafted 300,000 unhappy, mostly unfit and largely middle-age men and began shoving them toward the front after just two weeks of rudimentary training.

These draftees are worse than useless. They consume precious supplies, die easily and tend to surrender at the first opportunity. As conscripts account for more and more of the Russian armed forces’ front-line strength, commanders lean more heavily on the remaining volunteer soldiers to lead attacks.

Every attack depletes the remaining good troops. It’s an open question whether Avdiivka—and, by extension, the free part of Donetsk Oblast—is worth the cost to the Kremlin. Especially considering that, almost everywhere else in Ukraine, the Russians are retreating.

Yes, pro-Russian mercenaries from The Wagner Group have been trying to capture the town of Bakhmut, apparently for bragging rights. And yes, Russian and separatist troops are advancing around Opytne in order to extend a potential partial encirclement of Avdiivka.

But capturing Avdiivka and Bakhmut won’t matter much if Russian lines disintegrate everywhere else—and strand the Russian garrisons in the few scattered towns they recently seized.

It’s possible pro-Russian forces—reportedly including the notorious 1st Sloviansk Brigade—captured some or all of Opytne this week. It’s possible, in other words, the Donetsk separatists advanced a mile toward Avdiivka.

But it’s not for no reason the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. described Russian assaults in the area as “limited.” One observer estimated the separatists seized half a square mile in three weeks.

It’s another four miles to Avdiivka. The problem, for the separatists, is that elements of the Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigade have begun deploying along the Avdiivka front. The 53rd operates T-64 and T-72 tanks and French-made Caesar howitzers. It might not be the best Ukrainian formation. But it certainly isn’t the worst.

The 18 wheeled Caesars firing the best 155-millimeter NATO ammunition should worry the Russians and their allies the most. Pro-Russian forces have been doing their best to hunt down the Caesars and knock them out with Lancet suicide drones—and to their credit have damaged at least one of the big guns.

The other 17 howitzers are still out there, however. It’s a long way to Avdiivka across shell-pocked terrain. Even if the Russians capture the town—and that’s a big if—they might soon regret doing so as the rest of the front collapses.