Solana Price Stalls Near $200, But a 40% Rally Still in Sight

Solana price hit a high of $206 recently but has pulled back to around $189. It’s down nearly 6% in the last 24 hours, and some traders are getting nervous.

The rally seemed strong at first, but now it looks stuck. The big question is: Is this just a short pause before a bigger move, or is the top in?

While price action may look sleepy, on-chain and trading data still point to more room to grow, possibly up to $275, which is a 40% rally from here.

Exchange Flows Show Less Sell Pressure

One of the key signals right now is how much SOL is sitting on exchanges. Over the past few weeks, more coins have been leaving exchanges than coming in.

That’s a good sign. When people move their tokens off exchanges, it usually means they don’t want to sell soon; they might be planning to hold, stake, or move to cold storage.

Since mid-July, the flow has flipped hard into the negative zone, and the bars on the chart keep getting taller. That means fewer coins are ready to be sold, and supply on exchanges is shrinking.

This drop in supply lines up with the current sideways movement in price. SOL is holding above $196, even while other coins like ETH and ADA have dipped.

If this trend of outflows continues, the pressure to sell keeps dropping. And with buyers still active, it could set the stage for another leg up.

That is especially if SOL pushes past $218, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci level and also the top from May. Above that, the next target sits around $275.

Futures Market Is Bullish, But Not Overheated

Futures trading tells us how confident traders are, and right now, the signs look healthy. The funding rate for SOL crypto is around 0.0168%, which is pretty neutral.

That means traders are leaning slightly bullish, but they’re not piling in recklessly.

If the rate was way higher, it would mean the market is too crowded with long positions; often a recipe for a quick drop. But that’s not happening here.

At the same time, open interest is going up. That means more money is coming into the market, and more people want to bet on price moves.

When funding is stable and open interest is rising, it shows solid confidence; bulls are present, but not greedy.

It’s the kind of setup that allows a rally to keep going, rather than crashing under its own weight. So even though the price has paused, the futures data says the rally could still have fuel left.

Momentum Still With the Bulls

Looking at momentum indicators, things are still tilted in the bulls’ favor. The RSI, a tool that shows how fast price is moving, is climbing without showing any bearish divergence. That’s a good sign.

If price was rising but RSI was falling, it would mean the rally was running out of steam. But here, both are going up together, which shows that the strength behind the move is real.

The Bull–Bear Power indicator is also firmly in the green. That means buyers are still stronger than sellers.

Even with the small drop to $196, the chart shows that momentum hasn’t broken down. It’s more like the market is catching its breath.

If the price holds above key supports like $183 or $168, this pause could just be the setup before another breakout attempt.

Solana Price Action: SOL Needs to Break $218 to Unlock $275

Zooming out on the daily price chart, Solana is sitting just under a big resistance zone: the $199 to $200 area (more like psychological levels).

This is the level before which price stalled in May and also where the 0.786 Fibonacci level lies.

A clean breakout above this range, especially above $218, would open up space for a rally toward $275, the full Fib extension.

But until $218 is cleared, SOL price is technically still inside a consolidation zone. Support levels sit at $183 and $168.

These are key; they acted as resistance during earlier moves and could now serve as strong floors.

If SOL breaks below $183, the bullish setup weakens. But right now, structure is intact, and momentum remains positive.

Some X analysts are comparing SOL to LUNA, warning of a breakdown versus BTC, ETH, and others. But those takes are mostly based on high-timeframe comparisons, not short-term on-chain signals.

The data, flows, momentum, and funding don’t show any panic. Until major support levels crack, Solana looks safe and poised to go higher.