Key Insights:
- Solana price strength is now driven by long-term holders, not short-term speculation.
- A move above $149 could open the path toward $250–$253, an 84% upside.
- Rising stablecoin supply and network activity support the improving price structure.
Solana price has gained close to 10% over the past seven days. A small pullback followed, but the weekly structure remains steady. The reason this price action looks important is not due to the size of the move, but who is driving it.
Recent data shows a clear change in the type of buyers holding Solana, which often explains price behavior better than charts alone. This shift suggests the market is becoming more balanced, with fewer fast exits and more patient holders staying in place.
Holder Data Shows Stronger Hands Taking Control Over Solana Price
One of the clearest signals comes from Solana’s HODL wave data. This data groups wallets based on how long they hold their coins.
Short-term holders, defined as wallets holding Solana for one day to one week, are reducing exposure. In late December, this group held about 6% of the total supply. That number has now dropped below 4%.
When short-term holders leave, the price often becomes less unstable. That happens because short-term traders tend to sell quickly during small price bounces.
At the same time, wallets holding Solana for six to twelve months are increasing. This group rose from 13.9% of supply on Dec. 24 to nearly 15% by Jan. 7.
These holders usually buy with longer timeframes in mind. They are less likely to sell on small moves, which can help price hold its ground during pauses. This holder conviction change suggests that the SOL price is now supported by traders with more conviction, rather than short-term momentum.
Large Traders and Network Data Support the Same Story
Positioning from large leveraged traders adds another layer. The top 100 addresses in futures markets remain net short overall, meaning they still carry downside protection.
However, these same traders are slowly adding long positions. This kind of behavior often appears when traders expect higher prices but prefer to enter carefully instead of reacting late.
On the chart, Solana price has moved back above the 50-day exponential moving average. An exponential moving average gives more weight to recent prices. That helps show short-term trend direction more clearly than a simple average.
Solana lost this level in October and failed to stay above it for months. Holding above it now suggests improving short-term strength.
The next level traders are watching is near $149. This area lines up with the 100-day exponential moving average and past rejection zones.
Several analysts have also pointed to this level as a decision point for SOL price. Some expect that a sustained move above $149 could open a path toward the $250 to $253 range, which would represent an 84% rise from current levels.
Network activity supports this view. Solana’s stablecoin supply has increased by more than $900 million, showing more money moving through the network. At the same time, Pump.fun volume crossed $2 billion in a single day. It highlights continued user activity even as short-term speculation declines.
Solana price is now being moved by steadier holders, cautious positioning from large traders, and rising on-chain usage. How price behaves around $149 will likely decide whether the rally happens or fizzles out.