Social Media Hype About Winter Weather Is Coming

It was a bit chilly for our morning walk here in Georgia so I peddled away on my exercise bike in the basement. In that moment, I was reminded that we are approaching the cold season in the United States. It also means your annual dose of winter weather social media hype and misinformation. Here are some things to be ready for.

Meteorologist Chris Robbins actually wrote the perfect piece on this topic a few years ago on his iWEATHERNET.COM platform. In his article “Beware of Snow Hype & Weather Hoaxes on Social Media,” Robbins, whom I spoke with before writing this essay, noted that the winter season brings the usual batch of “viral” 10-day out snowstorm maps, wishcasting, and general misunderstanding of winter weather forecasting. Weather model information is generally available to everyone, but I constantly tell my classes at the University of Georgia that posting a model graphic does not make you a good weather forecaster. It makes you a good “copy – paste” person. Understanding the nuances of the atmosphere, the models, and communication strategies is vital.

A 2019 study published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences confirmed a basic tenet first established by the legendary meteorologist and father of chaos theory, Edward Lorenz. There is a limit on the predictability of weather, and according to the study, it is around 9 to 10 days. A press release issued by Penn State University provided the following statement by the late Fuqing Zhang – “I think in the future we’ll refine this answer, but our study demonstrates conclusively there is a limit, though we still have considerable room to improve forecast before reaching the limit.” In other words, there a limits to forecasts even with the perfect model and input because of the nature of trying to predict changes in the atmospheric fluid on a rotating planet. While meteorologists understand this, many people truly believe answers to the following questions are possible 10 days out – “Will the hurricane go exactly down that straight line towards City X? or “Will it snow in the left corner of my backyard near the dog’s water bowl?” Weather forecasting today is actually quite good as long as you understand the limitations. I have explored that topic in a previous Forbes essay.

This is exactly why Chris Robbins wrote, “For example, in the Southeast, we understand that significant winter weather events are exceedingly rare during the month of December….an exciting model forecast for heavy snow in Alabama or Georgia 10-days in advance in mid-December will be tempered by the unfavorable snow climatology for this area.” A good forecaster will consider such factors and will understand, as Robbins continued that, “Odds are, the model will flip-flop with future runs as it ingests more and better data.” We live in an area of “social media-rologists” who yearn to be the “first” to tell you about the big snow storm. However, the old saying is true, “Just because you see it on the Internet, it doesn’t make it true.”

A 2022 study entitled, “The disaster of misinformation: a review of research in social media,” mentioned that retweet counts, early information, content credibility, emotions, and a desire to inform their circles were motivations for retweeting information. Others have hypothesized that social media prowess and “being first” feeds psychological needs around ego and narcissism. These days people try to attract “likes” and “shares” often at the expense of meteorological credibility. Unfortunately, the average person may not be able to decipher what should be shared (or when) and that can have bad effects downstream. Such carelessness leads to misguided expectations and misperceptions about the efficacy of weather forecasting.

Some other things to be aware of this winter season are “high-end” bias, wishcasting, and static information gathering. The “high-end” bias effect is what I define as people seeing a forecast for 3 to 6 inches of snowfall for there area then criticizing the forecast because“only” 3 inches falls. I have noticed a tendency for people to focus on the high-end of the range in the same way that people incorrectly focus on the center line of the hurricane cone rather than the entire cone. For snow lovers, the desire for the “high-end” is likely a reflection of wishcasting. Secretly, I think people enjoy the, at times, irrational bread hoarding.

Static weather information gathering is also problematic. People often see a forecast or their little App icon on a particular day and assume that will be the absolute outcome five days later. Sure, it is a forecast, but they evolve. It is important to watch the “evolving forecast” rather than act exclusively on the one you saw five days ago. This tendency is challenging here in the South for winter weather events, and it also held true recently with Hurricane Ian in Florida.

My colleague Rick Smith is a meteorologist at the National Weather Service – Norman. He wrote the perfect elixir below for forthcoming winter weather social media virus. I encourage everyone to study it carefully.