So, How Is Keegan Murray Doing?

The 2022 NBA Draft was considered by some (if not most) draft analysts to be a three-player draft. Much as every team would look for quality all down the board, it was a fairly widely held opinion to say that beyond the top three candidates – Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren, in some order depending on preference – there was a distinct drop-off thereafter. Not the draft to be picking fourth in, then.

Nevertheless, pick fourth the Sacramento Kings did. With that selection, they drafted Keegan Murray, a sophomore forward out of Iowa who had averaged an eye-catching 23.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.5 assists and 1.3 steals alongside only 1.1 turnovers per game, all the while shooting a 55.4% field goal percentage and a .638 true shooting clip. He could not have been much better as a college player. The question, then, was how well it would adapt to the big league.

Although his Kings team has lost three games in a row, two of them (against the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics) came against the number one seeds in each conference, and immediately prior to that, they had won seven on the spin. The Kings currently sit in the provisional sixth seed in the Western Conference, on course currently to end a sixteen-year postseason-less streak, the longest such stretch in the NBA today.

Notwithstanding some inconsistencies to be expected with any rookie, Murray has at times been a useful contributor to this mini-resurgence. But his progression has not been especially linear.

On the season thus far, Murray has averaged 10.4 points and 3.8 rebounds in 28.8 minutes per game, starting all but one of the team’s last 16 games. In that time, though, his role has actually reduced rather than grown. Murray has played more than 30 minutes on eight occasions, yet five of those were his first five NBA games; in the twelve games since, he has done it only three times. And although he averaged 17.4 points across those first five games, he has averaged only 7,5 points per game since.

Murray’s offensive inconsistencies to date are in keeping with his role. His shot profile is unmistakably one of a catch-and-shoot three-point player, and as is the case with many rookies, he has yet to fully adapt to the NBA’s three-point line. Despite shooting only 32.6% from three-point range, Murray has shot far more threes than twos, and when inside the arc, his non-dunk finishing at the basket has been poor too.

From a man who came into the league with a purported scoring bag and the ability to get points from all three levels, it is a tepid start. Even within a limited role, he has looked limited. However, struggling with a back injury and family matters, Murray’s sporadic performance to date has had mitigating factors behind it. And beyond the inconsistency lies some good signs.

For a start, the same shot profile that has limited him to date will, once he gets his NBA legs under him, stand him in good stead. Murray is a smooth shooter who will be a high-30s NBA three-point shooter within time,

This in turn will open up his ability to create his own shot, something which Murray has not much yet done. Perhaps playing somewhat timidly offensively, improved shooting will in turn open up dribble-drives and pull-ups, and, if afforded more confidence, better attacks of the rim (where currently he has a tendency to get blocked, unaccustomed to the sheer nightly volume of NBA defensive length). Once he starts to shoot like Cameron Johnson, perhaps then he can play more like Khris Middleton.

More importantly, he is already having some good moments defensively, the area in which he does his best work. Without standout physical attributes from an NBA point of view, Murray seems to already have a well-developed positional awareness in his man-to-man defence, along with good footwork and a motor. He is not much falling for the same tricks he could stand to employ more on offence – up-fakes, jab steps and the like – and more often than not gets himself in the right place.

Off the ball, Murray’s defence has had a few more holes in it, and he is less often in the right place. Much as he has been mostly an off-ball offensive player, he has been most effective as an on-ball defensive one, which is essentially the opposite of the superstar formula. Nevertheless, superstardom is neither needed nor expected from Murray, a player who, once better versed in the pace and space of the NBA game, could emerge as a premium role player on both ends of the court.

In amongst the missed shots, missed rotations and disjointed moments lies a heady and versatile player whose first five games should serve as a reminder that there is plenty to come once this slump ends. Sacramento’s relative strong start to this campaign should not shift the focus away from the goals of medium- and long-term development, which are the only things that will get them anywhere anyway. Be patient with Murray, for his struggles thus far all make sense.