Sixers Need To Keep Beating The Raptors At Their Own Game

Heading into Game 1 of their first-round playoff series on Saturday, the Philadelphia 76ers knew the exact recipe to stave off the upset-minded Toronto Raptors. They needed to win the rebounding battle and avoid turnovers to prevent the Raptors from exploiting their transition defense.

They accomplished both resoundingly during a blowout 131-111 victory.

Through the first three quarters of the game—before both teams emptied their benches in garbage time—the Sixers out-rebounded the Raptors 32-24 and had only one turnover. They finished with only three giveaways, tying an all-time low for any NBA playoff game.

If the Sixers maintain their advantages in those two categories throughout the rest of the series, they might make quicker-than-expected work of the injury-ravaged Raptors.

“We knew that’s the type of team that they are, scrappy,” Sixers forward Tobias Harris said after Game 1. “You know, a tall team that has a lot of wings that can go get rebounds. So we’ve been drilling it all day at practice, and when we got out there tonight, that was our emphasis from early in the game. We had to match their physicality and even be more physical than them.”

As if getting blown out in Game 1 wasn’t bad enough, the Raptors now appear likely to be short-handed headed into Monday’s Game 2. Head coach Nick Nurse told reporters Sunday that starting 2-guard Gary Trent Jr., Rookie of the Year finalist Scottie Barnes and reserve forward Thaddeus Young were all “going to be listed as probably doubtful.”

Young played only six minutes in Game 1 before suffering a thumb injury that sidelined him for the rest of the night. Barnes racked up 15 points on 4-of-6 shooting (and a team-high 7-of-9 from the free-throw line), 10 rebounds, eight assists and one block in his playoff debut before he injured his ankle during the fourth quarter. Trent, who finished with nine points on 2-of-11 shooting in 26 minutes, missed practice Sunday with a non-Covid-illness.

The losses of Barnes and Trent in particular could be too much to overcome for the top-heavy Raptors.

During the regular season, Trent was tied for the team lead with 1.7 steals per game and was tied for fourth leaguewide with 3.4 deflections per game. Barnes led the Raptors with 2.6 offensive rebounds per game and was second on the team with 7.5 total rebounds per game. Both are key to Toronto turning its disruptive defense into offense.

The Raptors sent an array of different defenders at Sixers guard James Harden, but Barnes wound up defending him on more possessions than any other Toronto player in Game 1. Until Barnes and Trent return, the Raptors may need to tone down their typical defensive aggressiveness, which could limit the number of run-out opportunities they generate.

The Sixers aren’t likely to finish with three or fewer turnovers in any other game of this series. Prior to Game 1, they had only one game with five or fewer giveaways this season. However, they ranked fourth leaguewide with only 12.4 turnovers per game, and their 12.9 turnover percentage was tied with the Phoenix Suns for fourth. This wasn’t a total outlier.

Sixers All-Star center Joel Embiid has been emblematic of that evolution. Despite setting new career highs in assists per game (4.2) and usage rate (37.2) this season, he had a career-low turnover percentage (11.3). He’s become much more adept at reading the floor, anticipating double-teams and making the right play instead of forcing difficult shot attempts against multiple defenders.

“I kind of invited the double- and triple-teams they kept sending at me all night,” he told reporters after Game 1. “Just trying to make the right play, whatever is going to get us the win. I said it. Having played against them for so long, especially the same coach, I kind of know how they think and how they want to play, especially defensively, so I think it’s all about me just keep making the right plays over and over and over, and I thought tonight I was pretty good.”

The Raptors held Embiid to only 19 points on 5-of-15 shooting in Game 1, which would typically portend a Sixers loss. However, he hauled in 15 rebounds, dished out four assists and didn’t commit a single turnover in his 37 minutes of action. He finished as a plus-16 on the night.

During the Sixers’ loss to the Raptors in the 2019 Eastern Conference Semifinals, Embiid averaged 4.0 turnovers across the seven-game series. His ability to pick apart the double-teams that Toronto sends at him—and his teammates’ ability to knock down the open looks he creates—will go a long way toward determining who advances in this series.

“I’m more mature in a way where there’s not a lot of things that can frustrate me,” Embiid said Saturday. “In the past, I used to get really frustrated by double-teams. Nowadays, it’s like, ‘Well, if that’s what you want to do, I’m going to find other ways to make sure that I make the right plays offensively.’ I don’t know, I think I’ve gotten better over the years offensively, too. My game when we played them was much different than it is today.”

The looming absences of Barnes and Young could make it even more difficult for the Raptors to stymie Embiid and win the battle of the boards. They still have plenty of size between Pascal Siakam (6’9″), Chris Boucher (6’9″), Khem Birch (6’9″), Precious Achiuwa (6’8″) and OG Anunoby (6’7″), but none of them can consistently defend Embiid one-on-one. If any of them get into foul trouble—Boucher fouled out in 15 minutes in Game 1—it will put even more pressure on their frontcourt teammates.

Toronto also needs to clean up its defensive rotations heading into Game 2. Tyrese Maxey (38 points on 14-of-21 shooting) and Harris (26 points on 9-of-14 shooting, six rebounds and six assists) picked the Raptors apart when they sent extra help at Embiid or Harden, as they were often a step slow to rotate over. Daring the Sixers’ supporting cast to beat them was a sound game plan, but they’ll need to do a better job tracking Maxey and Harris off the ball.

The Sixers were a minus-178 favorite heading into the series, but they’ve now jumped up to a minus-460 favorite heading into Game 2, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The uncertain availability of Barnes, Young and Trent is undoubtedly playing into that, but if the Sixers continue beating the Raptors at their own game, they’ll have far fewer realistic paths to pulling off the upset.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.