Sixers Can’t Bank On Houston Version Of James Harden To Save Them

The cavalry soon may arrive for the Philadelphia 76ers, just in time.

All-Star center Joel Embiid missed the first two games of the Sixers’ second-round playoff series against the Miami Heat as he continued to recover from the orbital fracture and concussion that he suffered last Thursday in their Game 6 closeout victory over the Toronto Raptors. However, the Sixers upgraded him Friday afternoon to doubtful after he cleared concussion protocols, according to multiple reports.

Embiid “is doing everything possible to play” despite still dealing with his orbital fracture and a torn thumb ligament that he suffered in Game 3 against the Raptors, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic. Either way, the burden of half-court offensive creation will likely once again fall on James Harden.

How Harden balances his responsibilities as a playmaker and scorer will go a long way toward deciding whether the Sixers can get back into this series or whether they’ll fall into a virtually insurmountable 3-0 hole.

When the Sixers acquired Harden in a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline, it seemed as though they might have found the missing piece for their championship puzzle. He’s one of the league’s best playmakers, and he immediately began generating easier shot attempts for Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and the rest of the Sixers’ supporting cast.

However, he’s no longer the player who led the league in scoring for three straight years toward the end of his tenure in Houston. Anyone who thought he would transform back into that player in Embiid’s absence had misplaced expectations.

Whether due to the lingering effects of a hamstring injury that he’s been nursing since last year or Father Time, Harden no longer has the consistent burst to blow by defenders and get to the basket. He flashes it at times—including with an explosive dunk early in Game 6 against Toronto—but he can’t rely on it as much as he did during his prime.

The bigger issue for Harden against Miami, though, has been Embiid’s absence. Without the big fella on the floor, the Heat are devoting far more of their defensive attention to Harden.

In Game 1, 12 of Harden’s 13 shot attempts were contested, according to ESPN Stats & Information (via ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne). They also double-teamed him nine times.

“The average closest defender on Harden’s shot attempts was 3.7 feet away, according to Second Spectrum,” Shelburne added. “It was the third-smallest amount of separation in a game for Harden this season and the smallest amount in a playoff game for Harden in two years.”

It got even worse in Game 2 on Wednesday.

“The average distance between Harden and the closest Heat defender in Game 2 was 3.1 feet, per Second Spectrum, the closest in any game for Harden over the past three seasons,” according to Shelburne. “For comparison, when Embiid is on the court with him, that distance expands to 4.3 feet.”

With the Heat devoting so much defensive attention to him, Harden has shifted more into playmaking mode.

“They’re doing a good job of just putting two on the ball and trying to deny me basically the entire court,” Harden told reporters after Game 2. “So it was giving our guys more space to be aggressive if they’re going to deny me wherever I am on the floor.

However, his teammates have yet to cash in on those looks. After shooting a ghastly 6-of-34 from deep in Game 1, they weren’t much better in Game 2. They shot 8-of-30 from downtown, although they were 30-of-54 from two-point range.

Despite those shooting woes, Harden has racked up a team-high 14 assists through the first two games of the series. (No other Sixer has more than five.) However, NBA.com credits Harden with 27 potential assists, which means his teammates have missed more than a dozen open shot attempts that he created.

“When I got opportunities to attack and be aggressive, and that floor has opened up a little bit, then I can go,” Harden added after Game 2. “Give them credit, but I feel like if we made a little bit [more] shots, and I keep saying that, but it opens the floor up a little bit more. You got to respect our shooters, now our gaps is a little bit more open.”

If the Sixers’ shooters can cash in a few more of those open looks, the Heat may have to rethink their defensive strategy against Harden. Embiid’s potential return could shift the balance of the series, too.

It’s unrealistic to expect Embiid to be his MVP-caliber self right away. If he does play in Game 3, he’ll be donning a mask—which bothered him when he suffered a similar injury in 2018—and he’ll still have a torn thumb ligament that was hampering him throughout the Raptors series.

However, even a physically compromised Embiid will be more of an all-around weapon than either DeAndre Jordan or Paul Reed, both of whom have gobbled up the lion’s share of the minutes at center in his place.

Whenever Embiid is able to establish deep post position, the Heat will have to shade multiple defenders his way. The Heat can’t afford to switch 1-5 like they have against Jordan and Reed and leave a smaller player guarding Embiid, which could free up more room for Harden to operate.

Either way, Harden’s primary value to the Sixers is as a playmaker, not as a scorer. Embiid, Maxey and Harris are all there to share some of the scoring load, but none of them can create shots for others like Harden.

It’s fair to wonder whether this diminished version of Harden is worth a five-year max contract worth north of $270 million this offseason, but that’s a question to answer after the playoffs. For now, the underdog Sixers can only hope Embiid is able to return in Game 3 and can help restore balance to their offensive hierarchy.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.