Sixers Are Flirting With A Historic Playoff Collapse Against Raptors

After taking a 3-0 series lead over the Toronto Raptors last Wednesday, the Philadelphia 76ers appeared to be cruising toward a second-round clash with the Miami Heat.

The Raptors had other ideas. They bounced back with two straight wins, including a blowout Game 5 victory over the Sixers in Philadelphia, to send the series back to Toronto for a Game 6.

While the Sixers are still minus-850 favorites to win the series, per FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re now flirting with a historic playoff collapse. No NBA team has ever lost a playoff series after jumping out to a 3-0 lead.

Out of the 143 teams that were down 3-0 in a series heading into this year, only 13 had even forced a Game 6, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Three have gotten to a Game 7, the most recent of which was the Portland Trail Blazers against the Dallas Mavericks in 2003.

The Sixers still have two more chances to close the Raptors out, and Game 7 (if necessary) will be back in Philadelphia. But the Raptors have wrestled the momentum away over the past few games, leaving the fourth-seeded Sixers searching for answers ahead of Thursday’s Game 6.

Turnovers, rebounding and transition defense continue to be among the focal points for the Sixers. However, the following three factors could also help decide who winds up winning Game 6, if not the entire series.

Fred VanVleet’s Absence

Raptors guard Fred VanVleet earned his first All-Star nod this season, but a knee injury has reduced him to a shell of himself over the past few months.

Before suffering the injury, VanVleet averaged 21.6 points, 7.0 assists and 4.0 three-pointers (on 40.1 percent shooting) across his first 50 games this season. He then missed 10 of the Raptors’ final 25 regular-season games, and he averaged only 16.0 points, 5.7 assists, 2.7 three-pointers (on 29.1 percent shooting) in the 15 games in which he did play.

VanVleet is a pesky defender when healthy, but Sixers guards James Harden and Tyrese Maxey were actively hunting him whenever he switched onto them. Maxey is 13-of-20 overall and 9-of-10 from two-point range with VanVleet as his primary defender in the series, while Harden is 4-of-9 with nine assists and only two turnovers.

However, VanVleet suffered a left hip flexor strain during the second quarter of Game 4 and did not return. He missed Game 5 on Monday, and it doesn’t sound as though he expects to return later in the series.

The Raptors went to an eight-man rotation sans VanVleet in Game 5, and Gary Trent Jr. was their only player under 6’7″. That length is giving Maxey fits in particular. After erupting for 38 points on 14-of-21 shooting in Game 1 and 23 points, nine rebounds and eight assists in Game 2, he’s been held to 23 points on 9-of-26 shooting over the past two games combined.

The mismatch-hunting that the Sixers exploited earlier in the series no longer appears to be an option unless FVV
VV
makes an unexpected return in Game 6.

Embiid’s Thumb Injury

Sixers All-Star center Joel Embiid suffered a thumb injury at some point during Game 3, although that didn’t stop him from drilling the game-winning three-pointer in overtime. An MRI has since confirmed that he has a ligament tear which will require surgery after the season, but the big man plans to continue playing through it.

After hauling in a series-low eight rebounds in Game 4, Embiid conceded that the thumb was an issue “when it comes to rebounding, at the free throw, and also passing.” He’s also committed 15 turnovers in the past three games after giving the ball away only four times in Games 1 and 2 combined.

Embiid dissected the Raptors’ double-teams during the first few games, but the pressure appears to be taking a toll on him as the series wears on. If the thumb is impeding his ability to catch the ball, hold onto it or get enough zip on his passes, the Sixers might not be able to lean on him as much offensively as they typically do.

Embiid also has to overcome the mental hurdles associated with the injury.

“I think where I’m really affected is I’m in a situation where I try to protect it,” he told reporters after Game 5. “So before I even attack or if I get the ball, it’s almost like I’m not playing freely where I’m like, ‘Well, if I do this, I might get hit or I might get hurt.’ So mentally, I’ve just got to get out of that and I guess hope for the best. And just be myself and not think about which move could put me in a bad position to get hit or get hurt even more.”

The Raptors don’t have a rotation player above 6’9″, which gives Embiid a major height advantage over anyone on their team. When he establishes deep post position and the Sixers can thread it to him, he’s proved capable of scoring through double- or even triple-teams. But if the thumb is affecting his mentality on defense, as seemed to be the case during the third quarter of Game 5, the Sixers might be in real trouble.

“I think Joel is trying to figure out his way,” head coach Doc Rivers told reporters after Game 5. “And that’s gonna take a minute. But we’ve gotta figure it out now and win games.”

Harden’s Aggressiveness As A Scorer

If the thumb injury limits Embiid’s effectiveness as a scorer, the Sixers will need someone else to pick up the slack. Barring an outlier shooting night from Maxey, Tobias Harris or the supporting cast (namely Danny Green and Georges Niang), all eyes will be on Harden.

The three-time NBA scoring champion is averaging only 18.4 points on 37.3 percent shooting against the Raptors, although he’s chipping in a series-high 9.2 assists per game as well. While his playmaking is helping generate easier looks for his teammates, Embiid wants him to adopt the score-first mentality that he had in his prime in Houston.

“I’ve been saying all season since he got here, he just needs to be aggressive and he needs to be himself,” he told reporters after Game 5. “That’s not really my job. That’s probably on Coach to talk to him and tell him to take more shots, especially if they’re going to guard me the way they’ve been guarding. But that’s really not my job.”

Harden did look to set the tone early in Game 3 with Embiid struggling in the first half, but he’s otherwise been mired in a scoring slump. He shot a combined 9-of-28 overall and 4-of-14 from three-point range during their losses in Games 4 and 5, as Toronto’s length and switchability is largely preventing him from blowing by defenders and attacking the basket.

Even if a lingering hamstring injury or Father Time is limiting Harden’s burst, the Sixers need him to be in attack mode. The Raptors are a top-heavy team without much depth, so getting one or two of them into early foul trouble could help swing the series back in the Sixers’ favor.

“We’ve gotta get James going downhill into more actions that he likes and more comfortable,” Rivers said after Game 5.

If they don’t quickly figure out some answers against Toronto, the Sixers could be on the verge of the worst playoff collapse in NBA history.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.