Sixers’ 2022 NBA Draft Fate Hinges On Brooklyn Nets’ Decision

The 2022 NBA draft order is now set following the results of Tuesday’s lottery. However, the Philadelphia 76ers still don’t know whether they’ll have a first-year pick in this year’s draft.

As part of their blockbuster deal for James Harden at the February trade deadline, the Sixers sent their unprotected 2022 first-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets. However, the Nets have the option to take the Sixers’ unprotected 2023 first-round pick instead.

Brooklyn must make that decision either way by June 1, per Rich Hofmann of The Athletic. Until then, the Sixers need to plan for either outcome.

If the Nets defer until 2023, the Sixers will have the No. 23 overall pick in this year’s draft. Otherwise, they’d be slated to have zero picks in either the first or second round.

Here’s how both scenarios could affect the rest of the Sixers’ offseason plans.

If The Nets Take The Pick

During his end-of-season press conference in mid-May, Nets general manager Sean Marks said the team is approaching the predraft process as though it’ll be taking the Sixers’ pick this year.

“We’re going through as if we’re trying to find somebody for this roster,” Marks said. “For this team that can help us move forward with. If we find a group that we think is going to be there, then we’ll keep the pick. That’s what we’re planning on right now.”

The Sixers might prefer that outcome, too.

Although teams have found immediate difference-makers in the late first round in recent years—look no further than Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey (No. 21 in 2020) or Memphis Grizzlies swingman Desmond Bane (No. 30 in 2020)—the hit rate in that portion of the draft isn’t great. For every Maxey, Bane or Bones Hyland (No. 26 in 2021), there’s a prospect who barely cracked his team’s rotation and quickly fell out of the league.

Maxey cemented his spot as a starter this past season, but between Paul Reed, Charles Bassey, Isaiah Joe and Jaden Springer, the Sixers already have plenty of other young players who are vying for scraps of playing time. Unless they believe they can find an immediate difference-maker at No. 23, they shouldn’t want to commit another roster spot to someone whom they couldn’t count on in next year’s playoffs.

The Nets might prefer to add an inexpensive bench player given their luxury-tax concerns for next season. However, the Sixers reportedly have their eyes on a bigger prize this offseason. Brooklyn might unintentionally aid that mission by taking this year’s pick rather than deferring it until next year.

The No. 23 pick will carry a $2.5 million cap hit next season. If James Harden either picks up his $47.4 million player option or opts out and isn’t willing to take a significant discount, the Sixers would have more than more than $140 million tied up in 12 players (not counting Danny Green’s fully nonguaranteed $10 million salary).

If the Sixers hope to acquire another star via a sign-and-trade this summer or want to use the $10.3 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception or $4.1 million bi-annual exception, they aren’t allowed to cross the $155.7 million luxury-tax apron at any point next season. Since veteran minimum contracts will carry a $1.8 million cap hit next season, the Sixers would gain roughly $700,000 in financial flexibility by rostering someone on a minimum deal rather than the No. 23 overall pick.

If The Nets Defer The Pick

Rather than take the certainty of the No. 23 pick this year, the Nets might prefer to gamble on the Sixers falling apart and getting a higher pick next season. They wouldn’t be risking much, either.

If the Sixers finish with one of the league’s top few records in 2022-23, the Nets would slide from No. 23 in this year’s draft to the bottom of the first round in next year’s draft. That’s a seven-spot drop at most, which isn’t a terrible worst-case scenario.

But given the lingering questions about Harden’s future outlook and the likelihood of Joel Embiid missing at least 15-20 regular-season games, the Sixers could also finish higher in next year’s draft order. That uncertainty could help the Nets generate more interest in that pick on the trade market between now and next June, too.

If the Nets do choose to defer until 2023, the Stepien Rule would prohibit the Sixers from trading the No. 23 pick until they’ve made their selection. (Teams can’t make trades that would leave them without a first-round pick in consecutive future years.) However, they could reach an agreement on a trade beforehand and choose a prospect at that spot on behalf of another team.

Given the salary-cap concerns and their lack of available roster spots, the Sixers might look either to trade the pick or spend it on a draft-and-stash player. Trading it for a heavily protected 2023 first-rounder—like the New York Knicks did with the Charlotte Hornets during last year’s draft—could give them more ammunition for a future trade. Meanwhile, a draft-and-stash player wouldn’t count against their cap sheet this year.

The offseason order of operations won’t be working in the Sixers’ favor here, either. The draft (June 23) comes before Harden’s opt-out deadline (June 29) and the start of free agency (6 p.m. ET on June 30). If Harden opts in, he won’t be eligible to sign a four-year extension until Aug. 10.

The structure of Harden’s next contract will influence the rest of the Sixers’ offseason moves, as it will largely determine whether they’re going to operate as an above-the-apron or below-the-apron team. While a $700,000 difference between a veteran minimum contract and the No. 23 pick may not sound like much, every dollar will count if the Sixers are trying to stay below the apron.

The Sixers are less than two weeks away from finding out whether the Nets will take their first-round pick this year or defer it for the 2023 first-rounder instead. Until then, they’ll need to spend their time scouting this year’s class in case they do find themselves on the clock at No. 23.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.