Should Pick No. 50 Be Used On Project Or Proven Talent?

After trading away the No. 37 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft earlier this month, the Oklahoma City Thunder will only have one selection in the second round on Thursday night. Following a lottery choice at No. 12 overall, Oklahoma City will then use its second pick at No. 50 overall.

The second round overall generally doesn’t produce stars. There’s the obvious outliers, as every draft usually has a handful of players that turn into long-term NBA contributors, but finding those guys tends to be extremely difficult. Especially late in round two, like at No. 50 overall, there’s a low probability that prospects even end up earning a second NBA contract.

Even if the odds of finding contributors in the second round are significantly lower historically than those in the first, teams are still incentivized to scout prospects in this range and add them to the roster. The prospects selected in the second round have cheaper contracts and can always spend time in a G League system on a two-way deal. Moving forward, there’s even a third two-way spot that is being implemented, which is another reason that franchises will value second-round picks, even if they’re later in the round.

Every team has its own philosophy when it comes to drafting in the second round. Some franchises prefer to take projects that need several years to develop before really being ready to contribute. Often times, these can be international prospects or even college players that left earlier than they probably should have, but possess upside and higher ceilings longer term. For other teams, there’s value in selecting prospects that might be a bit older than the average rookie, but have the experience and skillset to make more of an immediate impact at the NBA level.

For the Thunder specifically, the latter has been the trend over the past two drafts. While it’s a small sample size, the past three second rounders that have landed in OKC had spent at least two years in college and were set to be at least 20 years old by opening night of their respective rookie seasons.

2022:

2021:

• Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (No. 32)
• Aaron Wiggins (No. 55)

It would be foolish to say these three prospects have low ceilings, but they definitely don’t have superstar upside. Even then, they’ve each been able to contribute to winning as rookies in the NBA. While the Thunder had been amidst a rebuild when taking these prospects the past two drafts, opting to add more polished players seemed to be the strategy.

The draft prior, Oklahoma City selected Theo Maledon (No. 34) and Vit Krejci (No. 37) in the second round, both of which were known projects that needed quite a bit of developmental time.

In the 2023 NBA Draft, there will be plenty of options at pick No. 50 regardless of what direction the Thunder wants to go. There’s no guarantee all of these prospects will still be on the board by the time OKC is on the clock, but several should be.

Instant Impact

• Kobe Brown (Missouri)
• Ricky Council IV (Arkansas)
• Hunter Tyson (Clemson)
• Keyontae Johnson (Kansas State)
• Julian Strawther (Gonzaga)

Projects

• Chris Livingston (Kentucky)
• Tristan Vukcevic (International)
• Emoni Bates (
• Mouhamed Gueye
• Jordan Walsh

For Thunder GM Sam Presti, there’s no reason to enter Thursday night with preconceived ideas on whether he wants to use his second rounder on a project or a proven player. It’s all about waiting to see who is on the board and making the right decision based on how the night falls. Regardless, there will be plenty of options either direction, as well as prospects that fall somewhere in the middle.