MIAMI, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 19: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a two-run home run, his 50th of the season, during the seventh inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on September 19, 2024 in Miami, Florida. Ohtani is now the first MLB player to have at least 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in the same season. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
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We’re into the final month the regular season, so it’s time to another look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. Earlier this week, I looked at the AL and NL Cy Young races, and the AL MVP chase. Today, it’s the NL MVP race.
If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they “should have” produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter’s “Tru” Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their “Tru” Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in “Tru” Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..
This analysis goes through games played on August 31, and includes all players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title as of that date. Let’s get to it.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Three Phillies make the Top Ten – but all are in the bottom five. First up is 1B Bryce Harper (17.7 “Tru” Player Runs Above Average). It’s been a fairly quiet excellence from Harper this season – he’s been quite unlucky on fly balls, with an Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 130 that is well below his 171 adjusted mark. While his bat hasn’t quite measured up to that of Pete Alonso, his baserunning/defensive advantage pushes him ahead. He didn’t rank in the Top Ten a month ago. Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte (18.6 TPRAA) didn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify for this list a month ago, but does now. He has quietly been one of the purest hitters in the game for a while, and is morphing into more of a power hitter of late. With that comes more pop ups and a little more risk, and his defensive contribution is modest for his position. Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (19.3 TPRAA) is the first of two players we’ll encounter who is actually a below league average hitter according to this method. He’s been wildly fortunate across all batted ball types – his 120 Unadjusted Contact Score far outdistances his adjusted 87 mark, and he “should be” hitting just .255-.306-.386. He’s been the best defensive player in the NL, however, propelling him onto this list after being unranked last month.
Padres 3B Manny Machado (19.4 TPRAA) maintains his #7 rank from last month. He remains one of the most reliably predictable superstars in the game from year to year. No weaknesses, no over the top strengths. He’s been quite unlucky on fly balls this season (97 Unadjusted vs. 143 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), keeping his actual numbers down a bit. His baserunning/defensive value has slipped a little compared to recent seasons. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber (19.7 TPRAA) has been getting a lot of mainstream buzz for this award due to his gaudy home run total, much like Cal Raleigh in the AL. Schwarber’s case is even less defensible than Raleigh’s. The homers are literally all Schwarber has, while Raleigh is a strong defender at a key position. Schwarber’s a better offensive player than Raleigh – and all but players #1 and #2 on this list – but his lack of complementary skills hurts. He was unranked last month.
THE TOP FIVE
#5 – CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) – 21.0 TPRAA – Crow-Armstrong drops a notch from #4 last month, but that understates his recent decline. His TPRAA total has actually decreased by 5.5 since then, which is pretty hard to do. He’s the other guy besides Turner to rank in the Top Ten despite being a below average offensive player according to this method. He’s clearly an impact defender – only Turner has provided more baserunning/defensive value in the NL this season – but the offensive holes are many. Horrible K/BB profile, lots of pop ups, a grooved uppercut swing that results in poor grounder authority and an extreme pull tendency. He’s chasing pull power at all times – and he found enough of it in the first half that his numbers have held up fairly well.
#4 – RF Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) – 34.6 TPRAA – In my book, this is where the core MVP group begins. Carroll retains impact speed, and his baserunning/defense contribution remains substantial, but he has become a legit power hitter. Only #1 and #2 below, plus Schwarber, have higher Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Scores than Carroll’s 231. On top of that, he tops them all in average line drive exit speed at 100.8 mph. His plate discipline is just fair and his pull tendency is becoming a bit extreme, but oh, that speed. Big time power hitters with 20+ triples upside simply don’t come around very often. Worth the price of admission. Moves up from #5 last month.
#3 – RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) – 36.0 TPRAA – Tatis drops a spot from #2 last month. His numbers don’t seem befitting of an MVP candidate at first glance, but one needs to respect the damage the marine layer can do to fly balls in San Diego in a given season. His 83 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is well short of his adjusted 164 mark. Tatis “should be” hitting .274-.373-.469 this season, well above his actual level. Toss in impact wheels and very strong defense in right field and you have one of the most complete players in the game. Oh, and he’s still only 26.
#2 – RF Juan Soto (Mets) – 40.4 TPRAA – I like Kyle Schwarber – I really do. But there’s simply no way he can be ranked ahead of Juan Soto on an MVP ballot. We’ll get to the bat in a second. Schwarber is a station to station DH, and at least Soto plays a position (albeit not very well) and is 27 FOR 29 STEALING BASES this season. Yes, Schwarber has all of those homers, but Soto’s 100.4 mph average fly ball exit speed tops all but the guy below, including Aaron Judge. His 338 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score nudges out Schwarber (325) and Judge (314) and is behind only #1 below. He’s been extremely unlucky on both flies and liners this season, and “should be” hitting .271-.406-.573. He moves up from #3 last month. Oh, and he’s also still only 26.
#1 – DH Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) – 50.4 TPRAA – Not even going to drag his pitching into the discussion this year. Not enough of an impact. The bat is still pretty special. No, he’s not stealing as many bases as he did last year, but he still offers materially more baserunning value than Schwarber, who bests him in only homers and RBI. Ohtani has actually been spectacularly unlucky on fly balls this season – his 286 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is miles below his ridiculous, has to be a misprint 408 adjusted mark. His 101.1 mph average fly ball exit speed is the game’s best. His 100.5 average liner exit speed is second to only Carroll among this group. He “should be” hitting .283-.390-.635 this season, even better than his superb actual numbers. He maintains his hold on the top spot from last month, and though he could be caught, I doubt it.
Fangraphs WAR ranks Turner (6.3), Ohtani (6.0), Carroll and Diamondbacks SS Geraldo Perdomo (both at 5.5) as the top candidates. Perdomo currently stands 11th according to this method.