‘She Could Lose In The First Round Or Win The Tournament’

Serena Williams’ Wimbledon draw is set and although it looks favorable in the first few rounds, it becomes brutal toward the business end of the tournament.

In her return to the singles court after a year away, the 23-time Grand Slam champion will open against unseeded Frenchwoman Harmony Tan in the first round. After that, Williams, 40, could face No. 32 seed Sara Sorribes Tormo or American Christina McHale, and then No. 6 Karolina Pliskova in the third.

After that, things look especially daunting with Americans Coco Gauff and Amanda Anisimova potentially looming in the round of 16 followed by 2019 champion Simona Halep or world No. 4 Paula Badosa in the quarters; world No. 1 Iga Swiatek — she of the 35-match winning streak — in the semis; and world No. 2 Anett Kontaveit or Serena’s doubles partner and world No. 3 Ons Jabeur in the final.

Williams has the fifth shortest odds to win Wimbledon — with Świątek the favorite.

“I would only say that I think she could lose in the first round or win the tournament,” seven-time major champion and ESPN analyst John McEnroe said this week on a conference call promoting ESPN’s coverage of Wimbledon beginning Monday.

Williams, who remains one major title shy of Margaret Court’s all-time mark of 24, hasn’t played singles since last year’s Wimbledon when she suffered a leg injury and is now ranked 1208th in the world.

It’s been more than five years since she won her last major singles crown at the Australian Open in 2017.

She returned this week to play doubles in Eastbourne with Jabeur and they won two matches before Jabeur retired ahead of their semifinal match with a knee injury.

No one knows quite what to expect from Serena on the singles court, even 18-time major champion and ESPN analyst Chrissie Evert.

“Well, I have no idea,” Evert said. “I think you can’t expect a whole lot because she’s not match-tough. I think that when you don’t play for a long time, your instincts, it takes a while for your tennis instincts and your tennis IQ to come back.

“It’s hard to really assess how she’s going to play in singles just because you see her playing doubles. I can’t tell how the movement is from side to side, from up to back. The serve looks good. The power is there. I’m excited for the tournament that she’s playing. I think it’s great for everybody around. But, you know, it’s a question mark. All the other players have gotten better over the last year. When you look at Swiatek, Jabeur, some of the players that can challenge the top or can win Grand Slams. I’m always thinking you have to have low expectations. If anything great happens, that makes it all the better.”

It seems unlikely that Williams will be able to make a deep run after a 12-month absence, but she has won Wimbledon seven times — most recently in 2016 — and reached the final in 2018 (losing to Angelique Kerber) and 2019 (to Halep), both in straight sets.

“Serena, her playing is a boost,” McEnroe said. “The longer she plays, the better it is.”