Shakur Stevenson Vs. Robson Conceicao: Odds, Records, Prediction

It’s possible that Robson Conceicao has enough talent to become a world titlist at junior lightweight. He has plenty of skills (he was an Olympic gold medalist after all), and he was more than competitive in a 130-pound title bout vs. Oscar Valdez last September. But he’s a huge underdog on Friday night against Shakur Stevenson, and that shows just how much talent Stevenson has at this point in his career. Still, Conceicao will get another chance at a belt. It just doesn’t seem like he has much of a chance—this time, at least. Here’s everything you need to know about Shakur Stevenson vs. Robson Conceicao, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Conceicao is still bothered by the Valdez fight. Though the judges unanimously scored the bout for Valdez, Conceicao filed a complaint afterward about the judging, the refereeing and the fact Valdez kept his belt despite a failed drug test.

And Conceicao has a point. In the days after the fight, one of the judges, Stephen Blea, who had scored it 117-110, said he had messed up and gave too many rounds to Valdez, though he also claimed that he still believed Valdez had done enough to prevail.

Twelve months later, Conceicao still wonders about it, and he uses that perceived slight as motivation against Stevenson.

“I’ve trained all my life for this moment,” Conceicao said. “The world was able to see that I was better than Oscar Valdez. I should have won. … I’m a champion without a crown.”

Stevenson, though, has a slightly different take. He thinks Valdez won. That, of course, makes Stevenson looks like that much better, because five months after Valdez-Conceicao, Stevenson knocked down Valdez and dominated him to unify the junior lightweight belts.

“He’s a good fighter,” Stevenson said. “But I think he lost against Valdez. If you left it in the judges’ hands, then you lost. I fought Valdez, and I beat the s*** out of him. I don’t have any excuses. He’s talking about having COVID or something before his last fight. All I hear are excuses. I’m ready to fight. Tell him to not have any excuses on Friday night. I’m ready to beat him up.”

But here was an interesting nugget delivered on Thursday during the weigh-in when Stevenson weighed 131.6 pounds, missing weight by nearly two pounds. At that point, he gave up his two junior lightweight titles, though Conceicao can still win them by pulling the upset, and declared that he will move up to 135 pounds for his next outing.

But the fight will happen regardless.

Here’s more info on the Shakur Stevenson vs. Robson Conceicao showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 10 p.m. ET.

Shakur Stevenson vs. Robson Conceicao odds

Stevenson is the enormous betting favorite, but bettors seem to be favoring Conceicao. As of this writing, Stevenson is the -1400 favorite (bet $1,400 to win $100), while Conceicao is a +700 underdog (earn a $700 profit on a $100 wager). Interestingly, Stevenson was -2500 and Conceicao was +800 earlier this week, and before the weigh-in on Thursday afternoon, Stevenson was -1600 and Conceicao was +750. So, people have been putting their money on the underdog.

Either way, you should avoid the money lines and try to find some value on Stevenson in some other way—perhaps in Stevenson winning by decision at -200 or in the fight going the distance at -250. If it were me, I’d probably go with the former. If you think Conceicao can pull off the upset, I’d be more apt to take him by KO (+1600) than by decision (+1800). But since I don’t think either has much of a chance of happening, I wouldn’t wager much.

Shakur Stevenson vs. Robson Conceicao records

At 18-0 (9 KOs), Stevenson has pound-for-pound talent (in fact, I have him at No. 9 in my current list), and he’s coming off two of his biggest victories, a stoppage of Jemel Herring and the wide unanimous decision vs. Valdez. At this point, there’s nobody at 130 pounds who has close to the talent that Stevenson possesses.

In Conceicao’s biggest fight, he lost controversially to Valdez, but at 17-1 (8 KOs), he’s put together a solid resume. He’s already 33 years old, so you have to wonder if he’s already beginning to exit the prime of his career. Coming off the Valdez disappointment, Conceicao responded by dominating undefeated Xavier Martinez in January.

Shakur Stevenson vs. Robson Conceicao prediction

Stevenson is so good that not many people are giving the solid Conceicao any kind of chance to get through Stevenson. I tend to agree, even with Stevenson’s weight issues. It’ll be a victory for Conceicao if he stays on his feet the entire time and loses a decision. I’m not sure Stevenson will hurt Conceicao, but he shouldn’t have many problems with him. Say Stevenson by decision, somewhere in the 117-111 range.