Solana heads into September with gains of nearly 50% year-to-date, but its latest failure to stay above $210 raises doubts about whether the rally can continue.
Trading at $205, SOL sits at a crossroads where on-chain and technical factors point to both opportunity and risk.
Profit-Taking Pressures Build
Over 90% of Solana’s supply is now in profit. Each time this metric neared similar levels earlier this summer, corrections of 8–23% followed quickly. This suggests sellers could step in again, especially if momentum weakens near current resistance.
Exchange Flows Signal Caution
Exchange balances have surged back above 32 million SOL, a level last seen before August’s sell-off. Rising exchange deposits often precede heavier selling activity, meaning traders may be preparing to lock in gains.
Key Levels on the Chart
Technically, SOL remains inside an ascending wedge on the weekly timeframe — a pattern that often breaks lower. Support sits around $195 and $182; if those levels fail, a deeper drop toward $160 is possible. On the flip side, a close above $217 would flip sentiment bullish, clearing the way for targets around $240–$260.
Scenarios for September
- Bullish Breakout (15% probability): A weekly close above $217 sparks fresh momentum, fueled by ETF optimism and institutional flows. Upside targets sit near $240–$260.
- Bearish Breakdown (25% probability): Selling pressure intensifies if $195 gives way. A drop under $182 could accelerate losses to $160, wiping out much of August’s gains.
- Consolidation (60% probability): SOL remains range-bound between $182–$217. Market sentiment stays cautious while traders wait for fresh catalysts, potentially delaying a decisive breakout until October.
Outlook
Historically, Solana has posted gains almost every September since 2021, but on-chain data suggests this year could be different. Unless bulls push price decisively above $217, the odds favor consolidation or a correction before the next big move.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://coindoo.com/solana-price-warning-september-could-trigger-a-brutal-crash/