Bitcoin entered Thursday trading with muted momentum, holding just above $102,000 as the market continued digesting its sharp retracement from the October 6 all-time high.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin holds below $103K as long-term holder selling and the $108K–$110K barrier limit upside.
- BTC/Gold ratio hits yearly lows while seller-exhaustion metrics signal a potential bottom.
- Fidelity says long-term investors are slowly distributing after Q4 rally expectations faded.
- Market compression points to an imminent major move toward either $110K or the mid-$90K zone.
Despite several rebound attempts, BTC has not managed to reclaim the mid-$100,000 area that previously fueled strong rallies, leaving the market stuck in a tightening range with declining conviction.
A widely followed analyst highlighted that Bitcoin is still reacting well to support zones, but the absence of strong follow-through has turned the chart into a slow-moving consolidation. The analyst emphasized that the real bullish trigger remains overhead: BTC must break above the $108,000–$110,000 resistance band to unlock a new all-time high. Until that zone is reclaimed with strong buy volume, price remains structurally capped.
Good response from #Bitcoin.
However, I think we’ll start to see the actual move when US opens later today.
Ultimately, it’s still ranging in this area and there’s not much excitement about that.
If we want to break upwards, I’d rather want to see a break north of $108-110K… pic.twitter.com/GAUd057cSY
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 13, 2025
Technical Indicators Reflect a Market Losing Momentum
Recent trading behavior supports this outlook. The 4-hour RSI continues to flatten, signaling a lack of strength from both buyers and sellers, while the MACD remains below the zero line, showing that bearish momentum has not faded. Price structure over the past month shows a sequence of lower highs, weaker bounces, and quick seller reactions – classic signs of trend degradation.
Despite this, Bitcoin has consistently defended the $100,000–$102,000 region. This base has stopped every major intraday decline, showing that demand is present even in a cooling market. What BTC lacks is not support but breakout strength.
BTC/Gold Ratio Drops to Yearly Lows, Signaling Defensive Rotation
Another chart catching traders’ attention this week shows Bitcoin’s performance against gold falling to its lowest point in a year. The BTC/GOLD ratio has not been this weak since before the last major Trump-election-driven pump, suggesting that investors are prioritizing defensive hard assets over crypto risk exposure.
BTC/GOLD hits a yearly low.
The weakest levels since before the Trump-election pump. pic.twitter.com/F9TvweMgbS
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 13, 2025
This shift does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend reversal, but it highlights a cooling appetite for speculative risk. Historically, deep lows in this ratio have occurred either shortly before a powerful Bitcoin rebound or during extended macro-driven corrections. The current reading adds a layer of uncertainty to Bitcoin’s path forward.
Seller Exhaustion Indicator Signals a Potential Cycle Reset
In contrast to the defensive signals, on-chain datasets paint a far more optimistic picture. The widely watched Seller Exhaustion Constant has entered a deep capitulation zone, a region historically associated with market bottoms and early recovery phases.
SELLERS ARE MASSIVELY EXHAUSTED BULLISH FOR BITCOIN! pic.twitter.com/b1IXG24aWy
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 13, 2025
This indicator measures the combined pressure from long-term holders, short-term traders, and volatility. Its latest readings resemble those seen at major bottom structures in previous cycles, where sellers were unable to push the market lower despite negative sentiment. While not a timing tool, it signals that the market may be approaching a structural turning point.
Fidelity: Long-Term Holders Are Slowly Distributing, Not Panicking
Fresh analysis from Fidelity helps explain why Bitcoin has struggled to regain bullish momentum even as ETFs continue to accumulate supply at a steady pace.
Fidelity Research Vice President Chris Kuiper reported that long-term holders – often the backbone of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics – have been gradually selling into the market.
“Who is selling?”
Is the number one question I’ve been getting regarding #bitcoin‘s continued price pressure against a backdrop of visible buying (by ETPs, corporations etc.)
I’m not unique in suggesting it’s the long-term holders (or HODLers).
But one data point that gives… pic.twitter.com/9PVoolrtwm
— Chris Kuiper, CFA (@ChrisJKuiper) November 12, 2025
According to Kuiper, many experienced investors entered autumn with expectations of a strong October–November rally, based on historical cycles. When this surge failed to appear, long-term holders began distributing slowly rather than waiting for year-end.
Importantly, this is not panic selling. The selling is measured and spread out over time, creating a steady drag on upward momentum without causing a dramatic breakdown. This slow distribution perfectly matches current chart behavior: suppressed upside, firm support, and a lack of decisive direction.
Pressure Builds as Bitcoin Approaches a Make-Or-Break Zone
Taken together, these datasets show a market coiling into a high-tension state. Bitcoin is holding key support, ETF inflows remain solid, seller exhaustion is flashing potential reversal signals, and yet long-term distribution prevents the market from building momentum. This type of equilibrium rarely lasts long.
The next major move depends on which side breaks first: the gradual long-term holder pressure or the critical resistance band near $110K.
Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin
Bullish case:
- A breakout above $108,000–$110,000 triggers renewed momentum and likely sets Bitcoin on course for a new ATH.
- Seller exhaustion metrics indicate a structural bottom may be forming.
- ETF inflows provide a strong underlying bid once supply pressure weakens.
Bearish case:
- Continued long-term holder selling may push Bitcoin toward the $93,000–$95,000 liquidity zone.
- Weak BTC/GOLD performance reflects cautious macro sentiment.
- Failure to defend $100,000 could convert the current slow drift into a deeper correction.
Bitcoin’s Next Major Move Could Be Imminent
For now, Bitcoin remains trapped between a resilient floor and a stubborn ceiling. With technicals compressing, gold outperforming, and on-chain indicators diverging sharply, traders expect volatility to expand soon. Once the market decides, the resulting move is likely to be far more aggressive than the recent calm suggests.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-near-make-or-break-zone-seller-exhaustion-vs-long-term-exit/