Seattle Seahawks Should Use Extreme Caution In Long-Term Deal With Geno Smith

The Seattle Seahawks are reportedly interested in locking up quarterback Geno Smith for the long term.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Seahawks are interested in signing their 32-year-old quarterback to a new contract after this season. Smith is currently locked in to a one-year, $3.5 million deal he signed prior to the season. Because he’s been a career backup, he’s never earned more than $3.5 million in a single season.

As Rapoport notes, those contract talks with Smith will take place after the season.

“In fact, the Seahawks want both QBs back — Smith and backup Drew Lock,” says Rapoport. “They have yet to make an offer to Smith, who’s set to be a free agent in 2023, to extend his contract, and those talks will happen after the season.”

The Seahawks’ interest in re-signing Smith is of no surprise — they absolutely should re-sign the veteran quarterback.

The journeyman QB has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks this season, leading the league in completion percentage, ranking fifth in passing yards and interception percentage.

Despite their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Seahawks remain the favorites to win the NFC West at a 6-4 record. Even if the 5-4 San Francisco 49ers eventually overtake them, Seattle — at the very least — should make it into the postseason as a wild card.

However, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks need to use extreme caution when it comes to signing their new franchise quarterback to a long-term contract.

Carroll seemed to recognize this when pressed on the topic following the team’s loss to the Buccaneers in Germany.

Via Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times:

“That’s a really good question,” said Caroll. “We’re not there talking about that yet. We’re in the middle of the season, and we’re doing the things we need to do. But there’s a conversation that’s coming. We understand that. Really, really pleased with our guys and think they’ve done a great job. Geno’s having a fantastic season. He showed it again tonight.”

As good as Smith has been — and let’s assume he keeps up this pace, or somewhat close to it for the reason of the season — the Seahawks should not sign him to a long-term, big-money deal.

Seattle has a number of options when it comes to Smith’s new contract. They could franchise tag him — the average of the five highest salaries at QB — sign him to a new short-term deal or sign him to a long-term one worth big money, which is generally what elite quarterbacks sign.

If the Seahawks are smart, they’ll go with the middle option.

According to Over The Cap’s contract valuation based upon how Smith is playing this season, Smith’s contract valuation is a shade under $39 million.

In no way shape or form should Seattle sign Smith to a multi-year deal worth anywhere near $39 million per season. For perspective, that would make Smith the 10th highest-paid quarterback in the league.

A more reasonable contract wold see the Seahawks sign Smith to a two-year deal worth $40 million, as Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders suggests.

“Pay Geno Smith! Specifically, pay him $40 million dollars over two years,” said Tanier. “That’s a smart price for Smith’s services in the wake of his unexpected breakout for the Seattle Seahawks. It’s more than the $36 million over two years that Case Keenum received when the Denver Broncos decided that his 22-touchdown 2017 season with the Minnesota Vikings was no fluke. (Spoiler alert…) It’s much more than the $28 million over two years that the Saints gave Jameis Winston this offseason. It’s top-of-the-scale for a former prospect turned scrapheap veteran turned possible one-year wonder.”

The 2022 version of Smith is better than Jameis Winston ever was and better than Case Keenum when he game-managed the Minnesota Vikings to an NFC Championship Game berth in the 2017 season.

So you should expect Seattle to meet Smith more in the middle, say somewhere around $30 million per season for two years.

That should be a reasonable contract for both sides.

The fact remains that Smith is still 32 years old and is in the midst of turning in his first productive season as a starter. The veteran QB had never started more than three games in a season since 2014.

And while Smith’s play and his chemistry with Carroll and the team is undeniable, he’s still on the older end and largely unproven. We’ve seen too many one-hit wonders at quarterback and it’s a maximum investment to sign a player at the position to a long-term, big-money contract.

The Seahawks still possess two first-round draft picks for next season, with one likely on the higher end due to the Denver Broncos likely finishing as one of the worst teams in the league.

It’s one of the best quarterback classes in recent memory, with Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis all potentially being drafted within the first 10 picks.

As good as Smith has been, Seattle needs to keep perspective — they can find their quarterback for the next decade-plus in next year’s draft.

Smith could very well turn into more than a one-hit wonder. But to sign him to a four-year deal — when he’ll be 37 years old at contract’s end — worth $160 million would be an absolutely foolish decision.

Sign Smith to a two-year deal worth a decent annual value — no more than $30 million per season — and select a quarterback in next year’s draft.

Don’t make things complicated, Seattle.