Topline
Greenland’s rapidly melting ice sheet should push up global sea levels by about 10.8 inches even if the world slashes carbon emissions over the next century, according to a study published Monday, the latest in a string of dire climate predictions this year.
Icebergs are seen from NASA’s Oceans Melting Greenland research aircraft on September 7, 2021, near … [+]
Key Facts
The Greenland ice sheet could lose about 3.3% of its total volume—leading to a large jump in sea levels—if the ice keeps melting at the rate recorded from 2000 to 2019, according to the study, which was published in Nature Climate Change and conducted by researchers at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.
The study’s authors didn’t estimate how long this process will take, but wrote that most of the expected melting could take place “within this century.”
Researcher Jason Box called the 10.8-inch estimate a “very conservative rock-bottom minimum” that assumes the planet won’t continue to warm: If Greenland’s ice melts at the rate recorded in an especially hot year like 2012, sea levels could rise by 30.8 inches.
Some other recent estimates were far less severe: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said last year Greenland could contribute between two and five inches to rising sea levels by 2100, depending on how successful humans are at cutting greenhouse gas emissions and slowing climate change.
Monday’s paper used satellite images and observations to estimate where Greenland’s mile-thick ice sheet is melting faster than it can be replenished by snow, distinguishing it from many other sea-level rise studies that rely on mathematical models.
Tangent
Ice-melting in other regions of the world will also contribute to rising sea levels, a serious threat to millions of people who live in low-lying areas. The massive Antarctic ice sheet is also melting, though Greenland has been responsible for a greater portion of sea level rise in recent decades, and melting ice from mountain glaciers could make its way into the ocean.
Key Background
Over the last year, the world has faced a string of increasingly dire predictions about the expected toll of climate change—much of which will be tough to reverse. The United Nations said earlier this year global temperatures could climb by 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next two decades even if earth-warming carbon dioxide emissions are slashed. The Arctic regions are warming faster than the rest of the planet, according to one study, making the threat to Greenland’s ice sheet even more acute. Many experts think climate change has contributed to a recent stint of droughts and heat waves, and a handful of studies find future warming could lead to large-scale extinction events and make it easier for some infectious diseases to spread.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/08/29/sea-levels-will-rise-10-inches-no-matter-what-by-2100-because-of-greenlands-melting-ice-study-suggests/