Saved by China – ING

After a vulnerable start to the week, EUR/USD has come back bid. Efforts to reflate China have no doubt played a role – as did the soft US consumer confidence yesterday, ING’s FX strategist Chirs Turner notes.

EUR/USD range trading looks likely

“There is very little on the European calendar today, so EUR/USD range trading looks likely. But the fact that EUR/USD is holding above 1.1100 is encouraging for modest EUR/USD bulls like ourselves.”

“Elsewhere, we sent out a Swiss National Bank (SNB) preview yesterday. Our house call is a 25bp rather than a 50bp SNB cut – primarily because the SNB has such little room to manoeuvre on the downside. Given that the market is pricing a 37bp cut this Thursday, EUR/CHF could sell off if we’re right with our 25bp call.”

“Perhaps the only way the SNB can verbally turn EUR/CHF now is by suggesting that there is no floor for the SNB policy rate – and by implication that rates could go negative again. We very much doubt the SNB is prepared to do that and therefore see EUR/CHF trading towards the lower end of a 0.93-0.95 range.”