Saturday’s Canada-Sweden World Juniors Matchup Is Also A 2023 NHL Draft Showcase

Playoff seeding will be decided on Saturday, on the final day of round-robin competition at the 2023 IIHF World Junior Championship.

Sweden and Finland lead their respective groups. But Czechia and Canada are close enough to potentially overtake the Swedes in Group A, while Slovakia and the United States are within striking distance of Finland in Group B.

Once the top four seeds in each Group are determined, teams will cross over for quarterfinal elimination games on Monday. The semifinals will be played on Wednesday, and the medal games on Thursday.

The marquee matchup on Saturday will see the defending champions from Canada take on Sweden (6:30 p.m. ET). The Swedes are the only unbeaten team in the tournament and have given up just two goals in three games.

The host Canadians stumbled out of the gate, getting upset by the Czechs in their first game, but then went on to big wins over Germany and Austria. Canada needs a regulation win on Saturday to finish above Sweden in the standings, but Czechia can clinch first place in Group A with a win of any sort over Germany (1:30 p.m. ET).

And while the entire World Junior tournament is rich with prospects who will be eligible for the 2023 NHL Draft, Canada-Sweden will be of particular interest to scouts. The game will feature a head-to-head battle between arguably the top three prospects in a talent-rich class that has been anticipated for the last several years: forwards Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli of Canada and Leo Carlsson of Sweden.

In a tournament that’s typically dominated by 19-year-olds, the 17-year-old Bedard is the runaway scoring leader through the first five days of play, with six goals and eight assists for 14 points in three games.

His teammate Logan Stankoven, a second-round pick of the Dallas Stars in 2021, is second with seven points. Seven other players are tied with five.

By comparison, Fantilli has been quiet so far, with one goal and two assists. Carlsson has two assists to date — and while he dressed for Sweden’s 3-2 overtime win over Czechia on Thursday, he did not see any ice time as he was feeling under the weather. He is expected to be in the lineup against Canada.

In Group B, Finland holds a one-point lead over both Slovakia and the U.S., after winning two games and losing in overtime in their opener against Switzerland. The Slovaks lost in regulation to the Finns, and the Americans lost in regulation to Slovakia.

Saturday’s matchups will see Slovakia face Switzerland (11 a.m. ET) while Finland faces the U.S. (4 p.m. ET). A win of any sort for Finland would guarantee first place.

Gold medalists in 2021, Team USA has mostly flown under the radar so far this year. Wednesday’s 6-3 loss to Slovakia was bookended by efficient wins over Latvia and Switzerland. The toughest test of the round-robin awaits, against Finland.

The Americans have a relatively young roster and have been led offensively by a pair of 2022 top-five draft picks, Logan Cooley (3rd, Arizona) and Cutter Gauthier (5th, Philadephia). Special teams have been a strength, and on the back end, captain Luke Hughes has been a workhorse. The fourth-overall pick of the New Jersey Devils in 2021, Hughes leads his team with 22:00 of ice time per game — although that’s more than five minutes a game less than tournament leader Topias Vilen of Finland (27:23). The two rearguards could find themselves as teammates down the road: Vilen was also drafted by the Devils in 2021, in the fifth round.

With the midpoint of the NHL season quickly approaching, and Bedard continuing to match or exceed sky-high expectations, speculation will soon begin to increase about which teams will be best positioned to get a crack at this year’s very valuable first-overall pick.

The Chicago Blackhawks have been the most aggressive in their race to the bottom this season. They’re 1-9-0 in their last 10 games, which has moved them into last place overall. It’s also expected that they’ll soon enter into discussions about whether to move on from franchise stalwarts Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, who are both set to become unrestricted free agents this summer, before the March 3 trade deadline.

But the Columbus Blue Jackets are keeping the Blackhawks in their sights. Losers of seven in a row, they’re just two points ahead through Dec. 30, with a record of 10-22-2 for 22 points. General manager Jarmo Kekalainen likely did not picture his team in this position when he landed prized free agent Johnny Gaudreau last July. But with a prize like Bedard potentially within reach, he might be well-served to sell off any players he can at the deadline and make a concerted push for last place.

Ditto, Anaheim. With 24 points in 37 games, the Ducks have the same points percentage as the Blue Jackets — and just three regulation wins all season. Anaheim has also collected a nice roster of young talent over the last few years, including Mason McTavish — the MVP of the 2022 World Junior tournament last summer, and Bedard’s linemate on Canada’s gold-medal squad.

In November, Bedard named McTavish as the linemate he’d most like to start his NHL career with — and he might just get his wish.

Based on the NHL’s latest draft lottery rules, the Ducks would have an 11.5% chance of winning the first-overall pick from their current position, per Tankathon. And while all 16 non-playoff teams will be in the draft lottery, no team can move up more than 10 places. So, only the bottom 11 are in contention for No. 1.

The last-place team will have a 25.5% chance of picking first overall in Nashville next June. And that pick could yield a generational talent with the power to change the fortune of a franchise.