San Francisco 49ers Buy Themselves Time To Sign Brandon Aiyuk Long-Term

The San Francisco 49ers are set to hold on to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk through the 2024 season, with general manager John Lynch confirming this week they intend to pick up the wide receiver’s fifth-year option.

It is a decision that comes as little surprise. First-round picks have to struggle significantly for a team to decline the fifth-year option, and the New York Giants’ negotiations with Daniel Jones this offseason served as a cautionary tale for teams as to what can happen if an option is turned down and the player excels in the fourth year of his contract.

Aiyuk has not struggled. Quite the opposite. Despite a bump in the road in a 2021 season when he was viewed by many as being in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s “doghouse” for the first half of the year, the former Arizona State star has blossomed in to the 49ers’ number one wide receiver.

That has a different meaning than it does on some teams. Though he is top of the depth chart, Aiyuk can sometimes be the fourth option on a team that also counts Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey among their pass-catching weapons.

But he has still racked up impressive numbers and last year topped 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Since being drafted 25th overall in the 2020 draft, Aiyuk has compiled 2,589 receiving yards and 18 receiving touchdowns, the latter number being as many as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and more than the likes of Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin and D.J. Moore.

Still, those numbers do not do justice to Aiyuk’s overall efficiency. He has been a top-10 receiver by Football Outsiders DVOA — a measure of per-play value — in each of the last two seasons. He was 10th in 2021 despite his lack of his involvement in the offense early in the year and improved to ninth in 2022. Last season, he was also 12th in DYAR, which gauges total value, having finished 15th in 2021.

Aiyuk is one of the NFL’s most efficient and most talented receivers, one who excels at creating separation with his route-running, is better at the catch point than he is given credit for and — like Samuel and Kittle — does an excellent job creating yardage after the catch. Per NextGen Stats, he averaged 4.9 yards after catch per reception last season, outperforming his expected YAC of 4.3.

By exercising the fifth-year option, the 49ers will have him on a cost-controlled deal for two years, with that extra year giving them the chance to get out in front of talks on an extension.

Aiyuk would surely command a huge amount on the open market but, if he enjoys another highly productive 2023, then the Niners can proceed with confidence that he is worth keeping around for the long term and set to work signing him to a highly lucrative deal next offseason.

An impasse would open the possibility of trade talks, in which San Francisco would likely to be able to ask for a first-round pick given Aiyuk’s production and his age. The 2024 campaign will only be his age-26 season.

But, as Lynch indicated at the NFL owners meetings, the 49ers don’t appear willing to part with Aiyuk.

“Brandon has been excellent for us,” Lynch said. “It’s interesting when you’re at these league functions, ownership meetings, combine, a lot of people ask about him. They really appreciate his game and they see it ascending.

“He’s a guy we are very fortunate to have, and I think he is just
just
coming into his own. I think it’s only going to get better, so we’re excited about watching Brandon move forward with us.”

As Aiyuk continues to ascend, so will his price, but the fifth-year option buys the 49ers time and ensures they will get the first crack at giving him the contract he deserves.