San Diego Padres Need Much Greater Production From Juan Soto And Josh Hader

The San Diego Padres were hoping that trading for Washington Nationals All Star outfielder Juan Soto and Milwaukee Brewers closer Josh Hader could help catapult the club into serious contention to win the National League West.

As the MLB season enters the final month, the Padres trail the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers by 18.5 games in the NL West standings, with a record of 73-59.

With the addition of Soto and Hader, FanGraphs estimates the Padres 2022 payroll to be $213M, or $39M more than last season. The team remains under the first tier of the MLB Luxury Tax threshold, which is $230M.

According to widely published reports, the Washington Nationals offered Soto a long-term, 15-year contract with a value of $440M. Soto, under the guidance of player agent Scott Boras, rejected the offer. He would have been the highest-paid player in MLB history.

After he rejected the contract extension, the Nationals made Soto available in the July MLB trade frenzy.

The Nationals traded Soto, along with first baseman Josh Bell to the San Diego Padres for outfielder Robert Hassell, right-handed pitcher Jarlin Susana, outfielder James Wood, left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, and shortstop CJ Abrams.

It was quite a haul for Washington, but many analysts felt the return for young, budding superstar Juan Soto was fair.

Soto’s 2022 salary is $17.1M.

Still only 23, Soto will be eligible for arbitration for the next two seasons, before he can become a free-agent in 2025.

It remains to be seen if the Padres elect to offer Soto a long-term extension. They currently have third baseman Manny Machado, and shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr. signed until 2028. Pitcher Joe Musgrove is signed until 2027.

Machado signed a 10-year contract worth $300M in 2019. He can opt out of the deal after the 2023 season.

Tatis, Jr. signed a 14-year, $337.1M contract in 2021.

Tatis, Jr. is currently serving an 80-game suspension for testing positive for Clostebol, a performance-enhancing substance, which is in violation of the MLB Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.

At the time the suspension was announced August 12, Tatis, Jr. was on a minor league rehabilitation assignment after recovering from a broken wrist.

Without Tatis, Jr. in their lineup, the Padres had hoped Soto and Bell would add some much needed offense to the team’s attack. Especially Soto.

In his short big league career, Soto has been a source of outstanding offensive production. However, in his past few seasons, he wasn’t surrounded by much firepower in the Nationals lineup. But he still produced.

In the shortened 2020 pandemic season, Soto hit .351, which was the best in the National League. He had only 196 plate appearances, but he had a tremendous year. It seems that season is when the buzz became louder and louder regarding the skill of Juan Soto.

Soto won National League Silver Slugger Awards in 2020 and 2021 with Washington. His .695 Slugging Percentage and 1.185 On-Base plus Slugging Percentage in 2020 were an amazing accomplishment.

Soto has been an All Star twice in parts of five big league seasons.

In 2021, Soto hit .313 for the Washington Nationals, with 29 homers, 95 RBIs and 111 runs scored. His All Star season saw him accept an amazing 145 walks, the most of his career.

This year, Soto again made the All Star team as a member of the Nationals. While with Washington, Soto hit .246/.408/.485/.894 with 21 home runs and 46 RBIs in 436 plate appearances.

Now Soto is in a more potent Padres lineup, where he should be enjoying more lineup protection and greater opportunities to drive in runs.

But with a contending Padres team, Soto is also playing under more pressure than in his final days with Washington.

Usually hitting 2nd in the Padres lineup behind left fielder Jurickson Profar and ahead of Machado, the left-handed hitting Soto has been rather mediocre in his new uniform. Clearly, more was expected from him in the first month with his new team.

According to MLB.com, since entering the Padres lineup, Soto’s combined batting average with Washington and San Diego is .248. He has hit 24 home runs, but only three with the Padres. He has driven in 52 runs, with only six of them with San Diego.

Soto has walked 113 times this year, which helps limit the sting of his current struggles. The walks have helped bolster his on-base percentage.

But as noted by MLB.com, In his last 15 games, Soto has hit just .204. In the last seven games, he has hit .192.

As August was coming to an end, several high-profile players were hitting the ball out of the park at a nice pace. Here are the last 30 days of statistics for several players generally believed to be comparable in profile to Juan Soto:

Nolan Arenado-9 homers, 29 RBIs

Paul Goldschmidt-9 homers, 27 RBIs

Mookie Betts-9 homers, 18 RBIs

Aaron Judge-8 homers, 20 RBIs

Shohei Ohtani-8 homers, 20 RBIs

Albert Pujols-8 homers, 16 RBIs

———

Juan Soto-3 homers, 6 RBIs

Right after the trade deadline, the Padres had a record of 1-5, and many experts felt the team was pressing, and the new sluggers were having a rough time in their new uniforms.

Less production was expected from the switch-hitting Josh Bell. In fact, the first baseman is hitting only .185 with two homers and nine RBIs for the Padres.

Now, a month after churning their offensive roster with the additions of Soto and Bell, the Padres are still looking up in the standings at the Dodgers, but time is running out for the landscape to change.

In addition to trading for Soto and Bell, the Padres acquired All Star reliever Josh Hader from the Milwaukee Brewers.

Hader has struggled as the season progressed. Here are his monthly statistics:

March/April with Brewers-19.1 innings pitched-0.00 ERA

May with Brewers-7.1 innings pitched-0.00 ERA

June with Brewers-3.38 innings pitched-3.38 ERA

July with Brewers-12.54 innings pitched-12.54 ERA

Prior to earning his first Padres save August 31, Hader entered the game with a 23.14 ERA in 4.2 innings pitched for the Padres. After his first save, his ERA is “down” to 19.06 in 5.2 innings pitched.

On August 29, Hader yielded six earned runs on five hits and two walks in one-third of an inning against the Kansas City Royals. That is not what the Padres had expected.

Many that questioned the Brewers for trading Hader have since wondered if the front office was more astute than they were given credit.

In August, and since the trade deadline, the Padres went 15-13, which was not good enough to make a dent against the surging Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers swept the Padres in three games in Los Angeles from August 5-7.

During August, the Dodgers went 22-6, with an 11-game winning streak to start the month.

The Padres and Dodgers will play each other six more times this season. They will compete in Los Angeles three times from September 2-4, and play three games in San Diego, September 27-29.

As the season begins to wind down, one has to wonder if the Padres will offer a long-term contract to Juan Soto? Or, will they be patient and allow him to come closer to free-agency in their uniform and then make a decision about a contract offer?

For now, the contract of Juan Soto rests with the San Diego Padres. They are clearly hoping for more offensive production than they’ve seen from him to date

As September begins, the Padres have little hope of catching the Dodgers in the National League West. But, they are clinging to a Wild Card spot. They have won three straight games and face pressure to retain a postseason position.

Greater contributions from Juan Soto and Josh Hader will help the Padres postseason chances. Any help from Josh Bell would be welcome as well.