Russian Units Forced Back To Russia And Belarus To Reorganize And Resupply,’ U.K. Defense Ministry Says

Topline

Russian units suffering “heavy losses” in Ukraine have been forced to return to Belarus and Russia to “reorganize and resupply” as logistical problems continue to plague Moscow’s offensive, the U.K.’s defense ministry said on Wednesday, amid widespread U.S. and Ukrainian skepticism over Russia’s claims it will scale back operations near Kyiv.

Key Facts

The activity adds pressure to Russia’s “already strained logistics” in Ukraine and demonstrates the difficulties Moscow is having “reorganizing its units in forward areas within Ukraine,” the U.K. defense ministry said.

Russia will likely make up for the reduced mobility with mass artillery and missile strikes, the defense ministry warned.

The defense ministry said Russia’s new stated focus on Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, where the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk are located, is likely a “tacit admission that it is struggling to sustain more than one significant axis of advance.”

Late Tuesday, the agency said repeated setbacks and successful counter attacks by Ukrainian forces mean it is “almost certain” that Russia has failed to encircle Kyiv and troop movements away from the area could indicate acceptance it has “lost the initiative” in the region.

At peace talks on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said Russia will “fundamentally” reduce military activity around Kyiv and northern Ukraine, though U.S. officials urged caution until Moscow showed stronger signs of de-escalation.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the claims may be intended to “deflect and deceive” from Russia’s true intentions, with Pentagon spokesman John Kirby noting that the Russian troop movements could be a “repositioning” of forces.

What To Watch For

Russian activity in northern Ukraine and around Kyiv. Moscow’s vow to ease attacks in the north of Ukraine have not resulted in meaningful reprieve for those in the region, according to officials on the ground. The governor of Ukraine’s northern Chernihiv region said Russia continued to carry out strikes on cities on Tuesday and overnight.

Crucial Quote

“The door to diplomacy will always be left ajar, but I don’t think you can trust what is coming out of the mouth of Putin’s war machine,” Britain’s Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab told Sky News on Wednesday. To the U.K.’s Times Radio, Raab said Russia will “ultimately… need to be tested by their actions and they need to withdraw from Ukraine, not just reposition… I think we take a very skeptical view about anything coming out of Moscow.”

Further Reading

Biden Casts Doubt On Russia-Ukraine Optimism (Forbes)

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/03/30/heavy-losses-russian-units-forced-back-to-russia-and-belarus-to-reorganize-and-resupply-uk-defense-ministry-says/