Russian Su-35s Won’t Give Iran Air Superiority Over The Persian Gulf

The United States has announced that Russia will deliver Iran Su-35 Flanker-E fighter jets within the next year. While this would undoubtedly mark Iran’s most significant fighter acquisition in over 30, if not 40, years, it won’t likely enable Tehran to establish air superiority over the Persian Gulf or project power far beyond its borders.

According to U.S. intelligence, Russia will deliver Iran these fighters as part of the “unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their relationship into a full-fledged defense partnership.”

There were already several indications that Iran may receive Su-35s in return for supplying Russia with hundreds of drones for use against Ukraine. Furthermore, in September, the commander of Iran’s air force said there were plans for purchasing Su-35s.

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby has confirmed that Iranian pilots are receiving training on the Su-35 and that Iran could begin receiving the fighters as soon as next year.

“These fighter planes will significantly strengthen Iran’s air force relative to its regional neighbors,” Kirby said on Dec. 9.

As speculated since last year, Iran will likely receive Su-35s initially built for Egypt, about two dozen fighters. These are enough to bolster and begin modernizing Iran’s old fighter fleet. However, they are not enough to pose any significant challenge to the qualitatively and quantitively superior airpower of its neighbors just across the Gulf.

Iran’s air force needs at least 60 4.5-generation fighters to replace its arsenal’s most advanced fighters, the F-14A Tomcat and MiG-29A Fulcrum. It’s unclear if Russia plans to build an additional 30-or-so Su-35s for Iran as part of a second batch for delivery years from now or deliver fighters from its existing arsenal, which is unlikely given their need in the Ukraine war. There has been some speculation Iran will want to locally produce the second batch. If so, it could be seeking an arrangement loosely modeled after Russia’s prior deal with India — which allowed New Delhi to locally manufacture 140 Su-30s under license.

An increasingly desperate Moscow could offer Tehran such an arrangement to induce a swift supply of more weapons for its flailing war effort in Ukraine. As of writing, Iran is apparently reluctant to supply Russia with short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) as it grapples with the ongoing domestic protests that began in September. To reassure Tehran and secure SRBM deliveries, Moscow has reportedly offered its so-called “cut-throats” to help the Iranian regime crush these protests and secure its rule.

Even if the first batch of Su-35s arrives in Iran next year and there is an agreement for more later, Tehran will still face formidable rival airpower just across the Gulf.

Saudi Arabia has over 80 advanced F-15SA (Saudi Advanced) jets, an advanced version of the Strike Eagle which can carry as many as 12 long-range AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles. The United Arab Emirates has a similar-sized fleet of advanced F-16E/F Block 60s and will begin taking delivery of 80 Dassault Rafale F4 standard multirole fighters from France starting from 2027.

The Su-35, with its thrust-vectoring engines and ‘glass’ cockpit, is undoubtedly a sleek aircraft. However, it only has a passive electronically scanned array (PESA) radar, which is less capable than the active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars found on Saudi F-15SAs and Emirati F-16s. The Rafales Abu Dhabi has ordered will have more advanced features, including a powerful electronic warfare system that could make a crucial difference in a dogfight.

Even if Iran ultimately does acquire 60 Su-35s by the end of this decade, it won’t likely be able to pose a substantive offensive aerial threat. And that’s not even taking into account Israel’s large fleet of fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters.

The jets, especially if delivered along with advanced air defense systems such as the S-400, could, on the other hand, make it even more difficult for either Israel or the U.S. to attack Iranian nuclear sites. That prospect, more than any other, is likely what has Washington alarmed about this burgeoning military-technical cooperation between Iran and Russia and why it will most likely take preemptive steps to disrupt it.

Iran’s fighters haven’t been used for offensive operations since the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88) — with the conspicuous exceptions of a few airstrikes against Iraq-based opposition groups in the 1990s and a single airstrike against ISIS on the Iraqi border in 2014. Tehran invariably prefers to use drones and SRBMs against its regional adversaries, often using its militia proxies throughout the Middle East to give itself plausible deniability. A large fleet of Su-35s isn’t likely to change this longstanding strategy unless Tehran finds itself embroiled in another large-scale conventional war. But even in that doomsday scenario, it will probably avoid risk losing its most advanced fighters in a futile attempt to establish air superiority beyond Iranian airspace where they are more vulnerable.

Any delivery of Russian fighter jets to Iran is, without doubt, significant, but it isn’t likely to radically or fundamentally alter the military balance in that volatile part of the world.