Topline
Since its full invasion of Ukraine began last month, the Kremlin has shown rare vulnerability in controlling the narrative regarding its war on Ukraine, experts say, turning to significant information suppression and the platforming of baseless conspiracy theories – and even, on Wednesday, publicly contradicting Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Key Facts
Since Putin announced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” February 24, Russia has silenced any mention of the war outside of the state’s narrow approved narrative, barring referring to the attack on Ukraine as a war, shutting down Facebook and Twitter in the country, arresting thousands of anti-war protestors and making “false” reporting about the invasion on Ukraine a sentence punishable of up to 15 years, forcing independent media outlets to go off air and offline.
The Kremlin’s two main points on the war remain consistent: blaming the U.S. and relying on little more than baseless conspiracy theories—such as the development of Ukrainian chemical weapons—to justify its invasion, Jessica Brandt, a policy director for the Brookings Institution studying Russia and disinformation, told Forbes.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the featured article on the homepage of RIA Novosti, a state-run Russian news agency, reports that Russian intelligence suggests Ukrainian nationalists plan to use chemical weapons (there’s no evidence to support this), and another article explains why “Aryans” hate Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, parroting a claim Putin has repeatedly used.
Putin said last week Western sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine were a “declaration of war,” and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov kept up the criticism Wednesday, claiming in state-run news agency TASS, “The US, undoubtedly, declared an economic war against Russia and they are waging this war.”
But in a rare misstep, Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov admitted there were conscripts—citizens fulfilling their mandatory service requirement—fighting in the war in a statement, a day after Putin promised there were no conscripts and no plans to deploy the soldiers completing their mandatory service.
Key Background
Russian military buildup at the Ukraine border was first reported in December, and Putin then enjoyed a two-month propaganda tour, constantly blaming the West for forcing it into invading Ukraine before ordering a full invasion of Ukraine February 24. Putin made frequent televised comments through late February, but Putin’s last speech on the YouTube channels of state-owned Russian news agencies Russia Today and Ruptly is from February 21. In that speech, Putin gave a misleading and often false lecture on Ukraine’s history before recognizing the eastern Ukrainian Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk separatist states and signing off on an order sending Russian troops into the Donbass region. Three days after that speech, Putin ordered a full invasion of Ukraine in a televised speech.
Crucial Quote
Anders Aslund, a senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum, wrote Putin and Russia are “losing the information war,” noting, “Putin’s attempts to justify his invasion have notably failed to gain significant traction. Instead, his increasingly unhinged rants about Ukrainian ‘neo-Nazis’ and ‘drug addicts’ have been widely ridiculed or simply dismissed.”
What We Don’t Know
How Russian citizens are responding to the propaganda. Brandt said, “One of the hardest things for outsiders to assess is what messages are reaching Russian audiences – what information they have access to and what is resonating.”
Surprising Fact
The Russian defense ministry did announce casualty numbers last Wednesday, saying 498 troops have been killed and 1,597 more injured—U.S. intelligence Tuesday estimated the real number of dead Russian soldiers is between 2,000 and 4,000, though he admitted it was a “low confidence” estimate. Ukraine claimed Saturday more than 11,000 Russian troops have died so far.
Further Reading
Two Russian State Media Accounts Keep Posting On TikTok Despite Content Ban (Forbes)
Why The West Is Out To Expose The ‘Kremlin Playbook’ (Forbes)
The War That Russians Do Not See (The New Yorker)
Why Vladimir Putin is losing the information war to Ukraine (Atlantic Council)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/03/09/russian-spokesperson-contradicting-putin-admits-conscripts-on-frontlines-in-latest-communication-blunder/