Russian Has One Main Bridge Into Southern Ukraine. Someone Just Blew It Up.

In 2016, a Russian firm began building a bridge from mainland Russia to the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, which Russian forces had seized from Ukraine two years earlier.

Starting in 2018, the bridge became the main overland supply line connecting Russia to Russian-held territory in southern Ukraine. Until someone—Ukrainian operatives, apparently—blew up the bridge on Saturday morning.

The partial destruction of the bridge over the Kerch Strait, east of Crimea, further isolates Russian forces in southern Ukraine at precisely the moment those forces need strong ties to Russia proper. Ukrainian forces in late August launched a counteroffensive in southern Ukraine that in recent weeks has gained momentum, and now threatens to surround significant portions of the Russian garrison in the south.

This garrison no longer has a bridge to Russia. It now solely relies on ferries and aircraft for resupply.

The double-span Kerch Bridge—a rail bridge running alongside a road bridge—suddenly exploded early Saturday morning. Videos, shot by motorists, captured both the initial blast and the subsequent blaze. “Sick burn,” the Ukrainian government quipped in a statement.

It’s not obvious just how the apparent Ukrainian operatives blew up the bridge. It’s possible they sneaked explosives onto a train or truck. It’s also possible they sailed a robotic vessel laden with explosives underneath the bridge.

The method is beside the point. The Ukrainians months ago proved they were capable of striking deep inside Russian-held territory using helicopters, rockets, artillery, drones and saboteurs. As Ukrainian deep-strike capability expanded, an attack on the Kerch Bridge became inevitable.

What matters is the effect. Without the Kerch Bridge, the Russian force in southern Ukraine—tens of thousands strong—could begin to starve. Its most reliable lines of communication to Russia now are the railways running into occupied Melitopol. But Melitopol is on the left side of the wide Dnipro River, and Ukrainian forces have blown up almost every bridge across the river.

All that is to say, there no longer is an easy way for the Russians quickly to move significant supplies or fresh troops into southern Ukraine. Cutting off Russian logistics could have profound consequences for Ukraine’s effort, eight months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, to liberate Russian-held territory and push back Russian forces all the way to pre-2014 borders.

Most immediately, the destruction of the Kerch Bridge could weaken the Russian garrison in and around occupied Kherson. Ukrainian brigades already were marching toward Kherson. Now they should be able to march faster, against increasingly fragile Russian formations.

Longer term, dropping the Kerch Bridge creates favorable conditions for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive toward the port of Mariupol, which the Russians first destroyed then captured this summer. If Ukrainian forces can liberate Mariupol, they would sever overland links between Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and Russian forces in southern Ukraine.

Severing the two contingents deprives both of the flexibility they need to reinforce each other. They’re stuck in place as Ukrainian brigade maneuver around them.

In apparently blowing up the Kerch Bridge, the Ukrainians significantly have boosted their odds of liberating broad swathes of Russian-occupied Ukraine.