Russian Bombers Just Carpet-Bombed Mariupol

Russian air force Tu-22M bombers flew into Ukrainian air space on Thursday and dropped unguided bombs on Ukrainian troops in the besieged city of Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov coast.

It was the first time the 120-ton, swing-wing, supersonic bombers directly have raided Ukraine since Russia widened its war on the country starting the night of Feb. 23. Before the Mariupol mission, the Tu-22Ms attacked Ukraine without leaving Russian air space—by firing long-range cruise missiles.

The bombing run, which was recorded by a Russian drone and later confirmed by Ukrainian officials, could indicate that the Kremlin is running low on cruise missiles.

It requires a certain amount of recklessness, or desperation, to fly the big bombers within range of enemy air-defenses. Georgian troops famously shot down a Tu-22M, killing its four crew, during the Russian invasion of the Republic of Georgia in 2008.

The drone footage of the Tu-22M raid clearly depicts a stick of gravity bombs exploding on the campus of the Azovstal steel plant on the eastern outskirts of Mariupol.

Around 160,000 civilians are trapped in the ruins of Mariupol. Thousands more have died. “The humanitarian situation in the city is worsening,” the U.K. Defense Ministry warned. “Most of the 160,000 remaining residents have no light, communication, medicine, heat or water.”

Azovstal is an important strong-point in the city’s defense. Troops from the far-right Azov Battalion, the Ukrainian marine corps and the local territorial defense force have holed up in and around Azovstal’s industrial maze. A number of marines a few days ago broke out of an isolated defensive pocket in Mariupol in order to link up with the Azov Battalion.

Surrounded and all but cut off from the rest of the Ukrainian military except for occasional, high-risk helicopter supply runs, the Azovstal defenders for more than six weeks have managed to hold off a much larger force of Russian, Chechen and separatist troops.

“Ukraine’s continued defense of Mariupol is currently tying down significant numbers of Russian troops and equipment,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated.

As battered Russian formations retreated from northern Ukraine earlier this month, the Kremlin has redoubled its efforts in the east and south, including around Mariupol. “Russian air activity is expected to increase in the south and east of Ukraine in support of this activity,” the ministry explained.

It makes military sense for Russia to bombard Azovstal. But it’s somewhat surprising that the Kremlin was willing to fly Tu-22Ms directly over the plant. It’s not for no reason that every previous Russian bomber sortie carefully avoided going anywhere near Ukraine.

Fifty days into the wider war, Kyiv’s air-defense system still mostly is intact. Ukrainian air-defenders so far have shot down at least 71 Russian aircraft that analysts can confirm. They’d surely love to add one of Russia’s 60 or so Tu-22Ms to their tally of kills.

It’s possible the Russians are running out of cruise missiles and, in order to keep up the pressure on Mariupol’s defenders, have no choice but to drop bombs.

A Pentagon official on March 25 told reporters the Kremlin’s stockpile of long-range precision munitions was down by half. “Air-launched cruise missiles in particular are the thing that they’re the lowest on,” the unnamed official said. “And then we think that’s one of the reasons why we’re seeing them use more and more dumb bombs, if you will.”

The Tu-22Ms in the recent raid got lucky and apparently returned to their base undamaged. It’s unclear what carnage they left behind. “Russia’s continued reliance on unguided bombs decreases their ability to discriminate when targeting and conducting strikes while greatly increasing the risk of further civilian casualties,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated.

If the Russians really are running low on cruise missiles, expect more bombers to fly directly over the war zone and drop more dumb bombs. Also expect the Ukrainians to take aim at the giant warplanes.