Russian Bombers Could Pummel Ukraine … Without Going Anywhere Near Ukraine

The Russian air force possesses the world’s third-biggest bomber fleet after the Chinese and American air forces.

Expect many of these 137 Tu-22M3 Backfire, 60 Tu-95 Bear and 16 Tu-160 Blackjack bombers to play an important role in the event Russian president Vladimir Putin orders his forces to widen their war in Ukraine.

Don’t expect the Ukrainian military to do anything about it. After years of development, Russian bombers finally can do what Americans bombers long have been able to do—strike targets on land with precision from hundreds or thousands of miles away. Well beyond the range of enemy air-defenses.

The advent in the 1960s and ‘70s of precision guidance and small, efficient jet engines drove a sweeping modernization of the U.S. Air Force’s long-range, non-nuclear, standoff strike capabilities.

In the ‘60s, the USAF acquired far-flying, inertial-guided reconnaissance drones. Replace the drone’s camera with a warhead and, voila, you’ve got a crude cruise missile.

The Air Force in 1986 began arming its B-52 bombers with a non-nuclear version of its 1,500-mile-range, inertial-guided AGM-86 cruise missile. For 33 years until new weapons were available, the AGM-86 was the USAF’s main conventional cruise missile—and the reason American bombers didn’t have to fly near enemy targets in order to strike them.

The Russian air force for generations has placed a priority on anti-ship missiles, but has been much slower to revamp its standoff land-attack capabilities. The Russians didn’t begin arming their bombers with non-nuclear cruise missiles until the mid-2000s. It wasn’t until 2015 that the first Russian bombers—swing-wing Tu-160s—actually fired Kh-101 cruise missiles in anger, at rebel forces in Syria.

The 24-foot, 2.5-ton Kh-101 with its 900-pound warhead probably can travel around 3,000 miles, combining inertial, terrain-following and satellite guidance to achieve the same kind of accuracy that early generations of American cruise missiles did. Many of the missiles should hit within a few dozen feet of their targets.

Today the Blackjacks and propeller-driven Bears both routinely carry Kh-101s and have fired them at rebels in Syria.

When operating over land, the swing-wing, jet-propelled Backfires have only ever been seen hauling gravity bombs. Air force leaders in recent years have proposed arming the Backfires with the new Kinzhal hypersonic strike missile that currently arms just a few squadrons of MiG-31 fighters.

At the very least, the Russian air force should have 76 Bear and Blackjack bombers that could fire Kh-101s at Ukraine without ever going anywhere near Ukraine. “Even the basic Kh-101 would allow the Blackjack to remain deep within Russian air space and still be able to strike any target in Europe,” explained Douglas Barrie, an analyst for the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

“An aircraft simply in a ‘race-track’ pattern above Engels air force base in central Russia, where the Tu-160 is located as part of the 121st Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, puts most of Europe, barring southwestern Spain, within range,” Barrie added.

“Along with the reduced risk of operating within national air space, remaining close to an operating base offers the ability for a comparatively quick reload and turnaround,” Barrie concluded.

Imagine dozens of bombers taking off at their airfields deep inside Russia, climbing to altitude, launching their Kh-101s then immediately landing, reloading and repeating the strike. The only limits on their capacity to strike Ukraine would be intelligence—that is, actually identifying targets—and the number of missiles in Russia’s arsenal.

There’s not a lot Ukraine can do to stop the bombers. Russian air-defenses chased the Ukrainian air force out of separatists-controlled Donbas—which is part of Ukraine—way back in 2015. Assuming reasonably sane planning on the part of the Russians, there’s zero prospect of Ukrainian fighters intercepting Bears and Blackjacks before they launch their missiles.

Yes, it’s possible—in theory—to shoot down ground-hugging, subsonic cruise missiles as they motor toward their targets. But it’s hard. Every time the Americans have launched cruise-missile raids, most of the missiles have gotten through.

That means the only viable defense is a passive defense. To survive a missile onslaught, the Ukrainians should keep moving when they can—and dig in when they can’t.