Russia Willing To Let Ukraine Join EU If It Stays Out Of NATO, Report Says

Topline

Russia may allow Ukraine to join the European Union if it pledges to stay out of NATO, the Financial Times reported Monday, as Ukrainian officials express openness to a neutrality pledge as part of broader negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting in Moscow on March 11.

SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are weighing a potential deal that would require Ukraine to be militarily neutral—barring the country from joining NATO or hosting foreign bases—but allow it to seek security guarantees from other countries and pursue EU membership, according to the Financial Times, which cited four unnamed sources.

Ukrainian politician and negotiator David Arakhamia told the newspaper these security guarantees could require countries like the United States to assist Ukraine if it is attacked, an arrangement he compared to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense rule.

Preliminary ceasefire discussions don’t include any requirement that Ukraine’s government “demilitarize” or “denazify,” two of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated objectives when he ordered the invasion last month, the Financial Times reported.

Negotiators have met for ceasefire talks several times since Russia invaded, and they’re scheduled to meet again in Turkey on Tuesday.

It’s still unclear whether a deal between Ukraine and Russia is on the horizon: Arakhamia told the Financial Times there are still “unresolved points” between the two sides, and some Ukrainian and Western officials have appeared to doubt Russia’s sincerity.

Key Background

When Russian forces began invading Ukraine more than a month ago, many Western officials believed Putin was seeking to overthrow Zelensky’s government and replace him with a more pro-Kremlin leader. The move would have effectively ended Ukraine’s on-and-off push to develop closer ties with NATO and the EU, a gambit Russia staunchly opposes. However, the Russian military has struggled against stiffer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance, possibly leading it to scale back its ambitions. The Kremlin said earlier this month it’s open to neutrality for Ukraine along the lines of Austria or Sweden, neither of which are NATO members. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also appears to be open to neutral status. He told Russian reporters Sunday he’s willing to talk about neutrality as long as Ukrainian citizens get to vote on the measure and third-party countries give Ukraine security assurances, and Zelensky has conceded in recent weeks that NATO is unlikely to admit Ukraine soon.

Crucial Quote

“Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it,” Zelensky told reporters Sunday, according to Reuters’ translation.

Tangent

Ukraine passed a constitutional amendment in 2019 that enshrined NATO and EU membership as goals for the country, but progress has been slow, even though NATO announced in 2008 it will eventually admit Ukraine. NATO accepts new members by consensus, meaning all 30 of the organization’s existing members will need to find Ukraine’s application acceptable. Some NATO members likely worry that further expansion of the alliance—which has accepted several former Soviet allies since the late 1990s, drawing Putin’s ire—could damage relations with Russia, and Ukraine will need to meet NATO’s standards for democratic government and military competence before joining. EU membership is also a daunting and time-consuming process that would force Ukraine to meet political, economic and legal requirements and earn unanimous support from the 27-country bloc.

What We Don’t Know

Territorial disputes are likely to be a major point of contention between Russia and Ukraine, and the Financial Times reports a proposed ceasefire deal between the two sides could leave discussions on territory to a later date. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief warned over the weekend Russia may try to partition the country like the Korean Peninsula, splitting off portions of eastern and southern Ukraine that have been occupied by Russian forces over the last month, and Russian military officials claimed last week they’re now focusing on “liberation” of the country’s east, which has been partly controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. Ukraine and most other countries also don’t recognize Russia’s claims to the Crimean Peninsula, which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Zelensky said Sunday he’s seeking a “compromise” on the status of separatist-held areas in eastern Ukraine, and he doesn’t intend to capture back all Russian-held territory by force.