Topline
Russian forces have driven Ukrainian defenders out of most parts of Mariupol and could fully capture the besieged port city “in the coming week,” the Institute for the Study of War said Sunday, following weeks of brutal warfare that city officials claim has left thousands of civilians dead.
A view of destroyed during a heavy fighting part of the Illich Iron & Steel Works Metallurgical … [+]
Key Facts
The few remaining Ukrainian troops in Mariupol—a southern city with a prewar population of over 400,000—are holed up near the Azovstal steel plant and in some other “isolated pockets,” according to the think tank, which is composed of retired U.S. military officials and other experts.
The Institute for the Study of War also assessed that Ukrainian forces have been driven out of the Port of Mariupol, which sits on the Sea of Azov, and Russia claimed to be in control of all urban areas of Mariupol on Saturday.
Russian forces will likely “clear out” the remaining Ukrainian troops in Mariupol in the coming days, the think tank said.
Russian forces will probably attempt to force a surrender through heavy firepower, according to the Institute for the Study of War, though the remaining Ukrainian forces appear dead set on fighting to the end—meaning the final attacks could be costly.
Key Background
After a weeks-long siege, the Russian Ministry of Defense offered an ultimatum to the remaining Ukrainian forces in Mariupol Sunday morning, demanding they surrender or face destruction. Russia’s deadline passed later that morning without a surrender, and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told ABC’s This Week on Sunday the country’s forces will “will fight to the end.” Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko claimed more than 10,000 civilians had died during the siege as of Monday, and the death toll could eventually surpass 20,000, though these figures have not been verified. The city has struggled to evacuate civilians, and Russian forces have allegedly struck civilian shelters during their month-long assault.
Crucial Quote
“The situation in Mariupol is both dire militarily and heartbreaking. The city doesn’t exist anymore,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CBS’ Face the Nation on Sunday.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/masonbissada/2022/04/17/russia-will-likely-capture-mariupol-in-the-coming-week-think-tank-says/